【笔记20251230— 债农：抢跑开始了吗？】

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that "expectation differences" are the basis for trading decisions, as without these differences, there are no discrepancies or volatility in the market [1]. Market Overview - The market is experiencing mixed movements with expectations of a better PMI and a balanced, slightly loose funding environment [3]. - The central bank conducted a 3,125 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with 593 billion yuan maturing today, resulting in a net injection of 2,532 billion yuan [3]. - Funding rates remain stable, with DR001 around 1.24% and DR007 slightly increasing to approximately 1.69% due to year-end factors [3]. - The stock market showed fluctuations but ultimately closed flat, while the bond market anticipates a better PMI, leading to an overall rise in interest rates [3]. Bond Market Insights - The 10-year government bond yield opened slightly higher at 1.86% and fluctuated within a narrow range, with the lowest point reaching 1.85% before rising again in the afternoon due to concerns over upcoming PMI data [3]. - The article notes that the recent surge in lithium carbonate futures prices, which increased over 66%, has led to losses for industrial companies, highlighting the disconnect between futures hedging and spot market prices [3]. Trading Sentiment - The article discusses the sentiment among bond traders, suggesting that the "running ahead" may refer to preemptively exiting positions, indicating a potential miscalculation regarding the expected decline in interest rates in December [3]. - The stock market is also mentioned to be engaging in speculative activities, with references to seasonal trading patterns [3].