国泰海通证券研究·2025-12-30 14:28Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for innovation and steady development of the digital renminbi, addressing four major challenges faced by digital payment tools in relation to central bank monetary control, financial disintermediation, responsibilities of commercial banks, and the centralized management of bank accounts versus the decentralized nature of blockchain technology [1][2]. Summary by Sections Digital Renminbi Development - The digital renminbi has achieved significant progress in its pilot phase, with a total of 3.48 billion transactions amounting to 16.7 trillion yuan by the end of November 2025 [1]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) plans to launch a 2.0 version of the digital renminbi on January 1, 2026, to address emerging challenges and enhance the management service system [2]. Challenges and Policy Recommendations - Four main challenges identified include: 1. The impact of new "currency" payment tools on traditional frameworks. 2. Financial disintermediation risks due to digital cash circulation outside the banking system. 3. Ambiguities in the responsibilities of commercial banks regarding digital currency. 4. Compatibility issues between centralized account management and decentralized systems [2]. - Proposed policy measures include: 1. A dual-layer operational structure to strengthen the development direction of the digital renminbi. 2. Classifying the digital renminbi as a liability of commercial banks, integrating it into the reserve and deposit insurance systems to mitigate disintermediation risks [2]. 3. Clarifying the responsibilities of banks, allowing them to pay interest on digital currency balances [2]. 4. Implementing a hybrid architecture combining account systems, currency strings, and smart contracts to leverage blockchain technology [2]. Transition to Deposit Currency - The digital renminbi is transitioning from a "legal currency" to a "deposit currency," enhancing its compatibility with the existing financial system and expanding the operational space for financial institutions [3]. - This transition aims to improve monetary circulation efficiency, stabilize the financial system, and enhance service capabilities for the real economy, potentially increasing transaction volumes in broader scenarios [3].