国泰海通｜固收：2026年地方债发行久期和节奏怎么看

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increase in long-term local government bond issuance due to the extension of special refinancing bond terms, with the average issuance term for special refinancing bonds increasing by 10.3 years from 2023 to 2025 [1] - In 2025, the average issuance term for special refinancing bonds is projected to be 18.9 years, with over half of the bonds having terms exceeding 25 years, particularly concentrated in key provinces [1] - The average issuance term for new bonds in 2025 is expected to be 16.8 years, showing little change over the past three years, but with significant variation among provinces [1] Group 2 - The issuance plan for local government bonds in Q1 2026 indicates a focus on refinancing bonds, with a total planned issuance amount of 1.5934 trillion yuan, including 116.4 billion yuan in new general bonds and 483.5 billion yuan in new special bonds [2] - The refinancing ratio for local government bonds from 2020 to 2025 has remained stable, with the principal repayment ratio consistently between 10% and 15% [2] - The issuance of local government bonds in 2026 is expected to balance issuance costs and repayment pressures, with a potential reduction in issuance terms compared to 2024 and 2025 [2] Group 3 - The peak issuance of new local government bonds in 2026 is anticipated to occur in the second and third quarters, with Q1 primarily focused on refinancing bonds [3] - Historical data suggests that during peak issuance months, the scale may reach 800 to 1,000 billion yuan, with 90% of the annual issuance typically completed by the end of September [3] - The fourth quarter will mainly focus on the remaining issuance quotas and balances from previous years, with specific amounts of 400 billion yuan and 500 billion yuan from 2024 and 2025, respectively [3]