国泰海通 · 晨报1231｜建材、交运

Group 1: Waterproof Industry Insights - The waterproof industry has experienced the most severe clearing among consumer building materials, with the top four companies expected to capture nearly 50% market share by 2024 [3][4] - The industry's profitability is at a bottom position, with leading companies nearing breakeven in B-end engineering business, indicating potential for recovery in 2026 as price stabilization and recovery attempts begin [3][4] - The rapid increase in industry concentration reduces unnecessary price competition and enhances the feasibility of price increases among leading firms [4] Group 2: Future Profitability and Market Dynamics - In 2026, the industry is expected to continue attempts at price recovery, supported by lower asphalt prices at the beginning of the year, which will aid in profitability improvement [5] - The improvement in competition dynamics is anticipated to positively impact sales expenses, employee numbers, and accounts receivable turnover days for major companies [5] - Major companies are diversifying their business expansion beyond traditional domestic waterproof engineering, which may further enhance their market position [5] Group 3: Aviation Industry Outlook - The Chinese civil aviation sector is projected to continue recovering in 2025, with passenger traffic expected to grow by 5-6%, leading to a significant reduction in losses and potential profitability [10] - The supply side is entering a low-growth phase, with fleet size expected to increase by approximately 3.7% by November 2025, while passenger load factors are anticipated to reach historical highs [10][11] - The industry is expected to experience a "super cycle" starting in 2026, driven by steady demand growth and a recovery in customer structure, which will support price and profitability increases [12]