Sinopec Corp.(SH:600028) DT新材料·2025-12-30 16:03Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the urgent need for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) in China, highlighting the growing demand for aviation fuel and the challenges posed by carbon emission reduction requirements. It emphasizes the importance of SAF in achieving carbon neutrality goals by 2050 and outlines the technological advancements and strategies being developed to meet this demand [4][5][19]. Group 1: Industry Demand and Policy - China's aviation fuel consumption is projected to reach nearly 40 million tons in 2024, with CO2 emissions of 126 million tons, and is expected to grow to over 76 million tons by 2040-2045 [4][19]. - The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has set a carbon neutrality target for the aviation industry by 2050, with a zero growth target for carbon emissions from 2021 to 2035 [4]. - The ReFuelEU regulation mandates a blending ratio for SAF of 2% by 2025, 6% by 2030, and 70% by 2050, indicating a strong policy push for SAF adoption [9]. Group 2: Technological Development - The HEFA (Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids) route currently dominates the SAF production landscape, accounting for approximately 80% of the expected production in the next five years [20]. - HEFA technology utilizes waste oils and fats, achieving a carbon emission reduction of 65%-85% compared to traditional jet fuel, but faces raw material supply challenges [23][25]. - Sinopec's research institute is developing five technological routes to diversify raw material sources and address supply bottlenecks, including HEFA, gasification-Fischer-Tropsch, ethanol-to-jet fuel, waste plastic pyrolysis, and electrochemical conversion [26][31]. Group 3: Market Opportunities and Challenges - The SAF market in China is expected to grow significantly, with existing production capacity of approximately 1.05 million tons per year and planned additional capacity of 5.8 million tons per year by 2024 [37]. - Despite the high cost of SAF, which is 2-3 times that of traditional jet fuel, there is a lack of terminal subsidies and product prioritization mechanisms in China, unlike in the US and EU [37]. - The article concludes that achieving the ambitious SAF production targets will require a combination of technological innovation, raw material security, and supportive policies [38].