【广发宏观王丹】2026年“两新”政策的新变化

Core Viewpoint - The "Two New" policy has expanded its coverage and optimized subsidy standards, focusing on enhancing consumer demand and supporting green and intelligent products [1][2][4]. Group 1: Policy Coverage Expansion - The "Two New" policy now includes subsidies for the installation of elevators in old residential areas, facilities for elderly care, fire rescue, and commercial consumption facilities such as shopping centers and supermarkets [1][6]. - New subsidies for smart products have been introduced, covering smartwatches, smart glasses, and smart home products, reflecting a shift towards consumer welfare, safety, and intelligent living [1][6]. Group 2: Subsidy Standard Optimization - The subsidy for scrapping old operational trucks will prioritize electric vehicles, and the subsidy for residential elevator updates will be adjusted based on the number of floors [2][7]. - The car subsidy will shift from a fixed amount to a percentage of the vehicle price, which may reduce the subsidy for lower-priced cars compared to 2025 [2][7]. - The energy efficiency standards for household appliances have been tightened, with the subsidy for first-level energy-efficient products reduced from 20% to 15%, and the maximum subsidy per item decreased from 2000 yuan to 1500 yuan [2][7]. Group 3: Implementation Mechanism Improvement - The policy aims to lower the investment threshold for applications and enhance support for small and medium-sized enterprises [3][9]. - A unified subsidy standard will be implemented nationwide to ensure consistency and combat fraudulent claims [3][9]. - A pre-allocation system for subsidy funds will be established to alleviate the financial burden on enterprises [3][9]. Group 4: Future Funding and Policy Outlook - The first batch of special government bonds for the "old-for-new" program in 2026 has been expedited, with 62.5 billion yuan allocated, indicating a focus on quicker policy effectiveness [4][11]. - The total funding for the "old-for-new" program in 2026 is expected to be around 250 billion yuan, slightly lower than in 2025, reflecting a potential shift towards service consumption [4][11]. - The overall subsidy structure remains robust, providing a foundational guarantee for consumer spending in the coming year, despite anticipated slower growth in demand [4][11].