【金工】核心稳固，边际灵活：增量加速与定价权提升下的南向资金配置格局 ——南向资金跟踪（祁嫣然/陈颖）

Core Viewpoint - Southbound capital has accelerated its expansion, significantly enhancing market pricing power, with cumulative net inflow exceeding 5 trillion HKD since the launch of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, reaching a record high of 6.27 trillion HKD by November 2025, accounting for 13.05% of the total market capitalization of Hong Kong stocks [4][5]. Group 1: Capital Flow and Market Impact - The pace of capital allocation has notably increased, with net buying in the first three quarters of 2025 surpassing the total for 2024, indicating a rare acceleration in allocation rhythm [4]. - Southbound capital's trading volume has risen to over 50% of the total trading volume in the Hong Kong stock market, reflecting its growing influence [4]. - The behavior of capital allocation has shifted from "sentiment overflow" to "value-driven," with southbound capital transitioning from speculative traders to pricing anchors in the Hong Kong market [4]. Group 2: Long-term Evolution of Southbound Capital Allocation - At the primary industry level, the allocation has evolved from a "finance and real estate-dominated" structure to a diversified structure centered on "finance, technology, and consumption," supplemented by healthcare and utilities [5]. - At the secondary industry level, the investment style has shifted from value-oriented to a growth style dominated by technology and new consumption, incorporating defensive and resource factors [5]. - The consistency between net inflow structure and holding changes reaffirms that southbound capital has matured into a forward-looking and stable long-term allocation force, enhancing its impact on the long-term pricing of Hong Kong stocks [5]. Group 3: Southbound Capital Allocation in 2025 - As of November 30, 2025, cumulative net buying of southbound capital has exceeded 1.38 trillion HKD, with a trading share approaching 50%, becoming a crucial support for liquidity and pricing in the Hong Kong stock market [6]. - Core allocations remain stable, with marginal industry rotations observed; finance and non-essential consumption have been the most stable net inflow lines, while information technology and healthcare have provided flexibility and rebalancing [6]. Group 4: Stock-Level Insights - Incremental capital continues to concentrate on high liquidity and fundamentally sound industry leaders, with a slight decrease in the proportion of the top ten and top fifty holdings, indicating a notable internal rebalancing among core assets [7]. - The annual net inflow reflects a long-term preference for core assets, while monthly levels exhibit tactical flexibility around valuation, events, and sentiment [7]. - In November 2025, despite a mild decline in trading volume, the overall accumulation pace remained high, with a net buying of 121.895 billion HKD, primarily in non-essential consumption and finance [7].