美联储会议纪要：“大多数”官员预计12月后适合继续降息，部分主张“一段时间”按兵不动

Core Viewpoint - The majority of participants believe that if inflation gradually decreases as expected, it may be appropriate to further cut interest rates, with most supporting a rate cut in December [1][4][5] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - Most participants support a rate cut in December, although a few indicated they might have supported holding rates steady after careful consideration [4][7] - Some decision-makers suggest that a pause in rate cuts for some time could allow for assessment of the recent neutral policy stance's impact on the labor market and economic activity [4][6] - The minutes reveal significant internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the decision to cut rates, with the largest dissent seen in 37 years [5][9] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Participants noted that inflation has risen since the beginning of the year and remains at a high level, while economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace [6][9] - There is an observed slowdown in job growth, with the unemployment rate slightly increasing as of September, leading to increased downside risks in employment [6][9] Group 3: Inflation and Employment Risks - Most participants believe that cutting rates could help prevent deterioration in the labor market, while some express concerns about entrenched inflation risks [8][9] - There is a notable division among decision-makers regarding which poses a greater threat to the economy: inflation or unemployment, with many believing that a shift to a more neutral policy stance could help prevent severe labor market deterioration [9] Group 4: Reserve Management - The minutes confirm that reserve balances have fallen to adequate levels, prompting the Federal Reserve to begin purchasing short-term government bonds to manage reserves [10]