美股材料板块成特朗普关税政策“隐形赢家”！2026年盈利增速有望创五年新高

Core Viewpoint - Despite the challenges posed by the Trump administration's tariff policies and fluctuating consumer confidence, the earnings growth of U.S. materials stocks is expected to reach its highest level in five years by 2026 [1] Group 1: Earnings Growth in the Materials Sector - The materials sector is projected to see a 20% earnings growth in 2026, with companies like Nucor Corporation (NUE.US), Sherwin-Williams (SHW.US), Smurfit WestRock (SW.US), and Ball Corporation (BALL.US) included in this growth forecast [3] - Earnings growth in the materials sector is expected to surpass that of the S&P 500 index, driven primarily by companies in the metals and packaging industries, which are anticipated to see earnings growth of over 30% [6] Group 2: Key Drivers of Growth - The imposition of tariffs on steel imports has granted domestic steel producers pricing power, with Nucor Steel expected to benefit from increased backlog orders driven by sectors such as energy, infrastructure, and manufacturing [8] - Analysts note that many contracts are lagging, meaning their effects will become apparent in the following year, contributing to a recovery for most metal companies [8] Group 3: Packaging and Consumer Goods - Food manufacturers are leveraging promotions to boost sales, which supports demand for consumer packaging suppliers like Amcor (AMCR.US), despite tariffs posing challenges for packaging and container manufacturers [8] - The North American containerboard supply is expected to be in a "healthy tight state," supporting price increases and ongoing cost and efficiency optimization efforts by companies like International Paper (IP.US) and Smurfit WestRock [9] Group 4: Outlook for Other Industries - The chemical industry is expected to recover after three years of contraction, while the building materials sector is projected to reverse last year's decline, benefiting from a favorable interest rate environment [12] - Companies like Sherwin-Williams are anticipated to benefit from a recovery in existing home sales, while Albemarle Corporation (ALB.US) is expected to gain from improving lithium prices driven by demand from energy storage systems [12]