【广发宏观郭磊】PMI年末超季节性反弹的可能原因

Core Viewpoint - The overall PMI in December shows a rebound, with manufacturing PMI rising by 0.9 points to 50.1 and non-manufacturing PMI increasing by 0.7 points to 50.2, indicating a recovery after consecutive declines in October and November [1][4][5]. Group 1: PMI Performance - The composite PMI reached 50.7, up 1.0 points from the previous value, marking a significant rebound after two months of decline [1][4][7]. - December's manufacturing PMI typically experiences a seasonal decline, with the average PMI over the past decade decreasing by 0.3 points during this period; however, this year shows a notable deviation from seasonal trends [1][4]. Group 2: Soft Indicators - Among the three soft indicators, both EPMI and BCI have shown a slowdown, with large enterprises' PMI rebounding by 1.5 points while small enterprises' PMI contracted by 0.5 points, indicating a divergence in economic conditions between large and small firms [8][10]. - The BCI, which is biased towards small and medium enterprises, has declined, while the EPMI's drop may relate to policies emphasizing the development of new productive forces [8][10]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Both supply and demand components of the PMI have rebounded in a relatively balanced manner, with production and procurement indices rising by 1.7 and 1.6 points, respectively; new orders and new export orders increased by 1.6 and 1.4 points [2][10]. - Business activity expectations also rose by 0.3 points, reflecting positive sentiment in anticipation of supportive policies from the central economic work conference regarding investment, consumption, and real estate [2][10]. Group 4: Price Indices - The raw material purchasing price index slightly decreased from a high level, while the factory price index continued to rise, supporting the notion that "anti-involution" measures are having an effect [2][13]. - The central economic work conference has set a tone for addressing "involution-style competition" by 2026, suggesting ongoing changes in supply-demand relationships and pricing [2][13]. Group 5: Construction Sector Insights - The construction PMI saw a significant rebound to 52.8 after being below 50 for four consecutive months, influenced by favorable weather conditions and proactive construction efforts ahead of the upcoming holidays [18][19]. - The rebound in the construction sector is also linked to the rollout of policy financial tools in the fourth quarter, which is crucial for maintaining momentum into the March construction season [18][19]. Group 6: Summary of December PMI - The December PMI reflects a seasonal rebound in manufacturing under the guidance of the central economic work conference's policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [22]. - The construction sector's recovery after four months of low performance is attributed to investment stabilization and the impact of previously implemented financial policies [22]. - The ongoing "anti-involution" efforts are contributing to improvements in factory price indices, creating favorable conditions for a strong start in the first quarter of the following year [22].