换一种思路看待金价的“无人区”（国金宏观陈瀚学）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future outlook of gold and silver in the context of market dynamics influenced by AI narratives and geopolitical factors, suggesting that gold remains a favorable asset amidst disorder, while silver, with its dual attributes, may exhibit higher elasticity as AI narratives evolve [2][35]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - As of 2025, the London spot gold has risen by 71%, marking the highest annual increase since 1979, despite a slowdown in central bank purchases and a surge in speculative market investments [4]. - The central bank gold purchases have increased significantly, with quarterly purchases rising from an average of 100-200 tons to 200-400 tons post-2022, indicating a shift in global monetary policy and geopolitical dynamics [5]. - The current gold reserve percentage held by central banks is approximately 22%, up 7 percentage points from three years ago, but still below historical levels during significant geopolitical shifts [5]. Group 2: Market Funds and Investment Strategies - Investment institutions view gold as a crucial hedging tool due to its low volatility and low correlation with traditional assets, with typical allocations in risk parity strategies being 8%-10% [13]. - The correlation between U.S. stocks and bonds has been high, necessitating alternative assets like gold for diversification, especially in a high inflation environment where traditional bond hedging is less effective [15]. - A shift in asset allocation strategies is observed, with major banks adopting a "60/20/20" model (60% stocks, 20% bonds, 20% gold) to combat inflation and market volatility [16]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Projections - Historical analysis shows that gold prices have not significantly exceeded previous highs, with current trends indicating a potential for continued appreciation linked to U.S. debt levels and inflation [20][25]. - The article suggests that unless AI technology significantly enhances productivity and fiscal efficiency, the gold bull market may persist, as the correlation between gold price increases and U.S. debt remains strong [25]. - The potential spillover effects of the gold bull market could benefit silver and other strategic metals, as they are increasingly viewed as complementary assets in the current geopolitical landscape [26][32]. Group 4: Silver and Other Strategic Metals - Silver, possessing both "gold-like" properties and relevance to AI narratives, is expected to show stronger elasticity in the market, particularly as AI narratives become clearer [35]. - The relationship between gold and other strategic metals like copper is highlighted, with expectations of a mean reversion in their price ratios as geopolitical tensions drive demand for these assets [32][34]. - The strategic metal index constructed from 19 rare metals indicates a potential bull market that may align with the gold bull market, driven by both private and public sector demand [34].