美国政府债务困境与国际货币体系多元化演进｜国际

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating challenges faced by U.S. Treasury bonds (referred to as "Treasuries") and their implications for the global economy, emphasizing the need for a diversified international monetary system to address these issues [1]. Group 1: Historical Context of U.S. Treasuries - Since the establishment of the Federal Reserve in 1913, U.S. Treasuries have evolved into a crucial dollar-denominated asset, facilitating the internationalization of the dollar [3]. - The entry of the U.S. into World War I in 1917 led to significant measures that enhanced the liquidity of Treasuries, further solidifying their role in international finance [3]. - The Bretton Woods system established post-World War II reinforced the dollar's central position in the international monetary system, leading to a substantial increase in the global share of Treasuries [4]. Group 2: Expansion of U.S. Treasuries - Following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, Treasuries became a primary channel for dollar repatriation, particularly after the establishment of the petrodollar system in 1974, which saw major surplus economies accumulating Treasuries [6]. - The scale of U.S. Treasuries expanded from $1.8 trillion in 1985 to $5.6 trillion by 2000, with foreign investors' share rising from 15% to 35% during the same period [6]. Group 3: Factors Supporting Treasury Expansion - Internally, the U.S. lacks motivation to enforce fiscal discipline, with the debt ceiling often raised rather than effectively curbing debt growth [8]. - Externally, the strong position of the dollar and the absence of viable alternatives to Treasuries allow for continued U.S. debt expansion, despite recent debt ceiling crises and credit rating downgrades [10]. Group 4: Recent Trends and Future Outlook - Since President Trump's first term began in January 2017, the U.S. debt has surged from $19.9 trillion to $36.9 trillion by July 2025, marking an increase of 81.5% [12]. - The net interest expenditure has escalated from $262.55 billion in FY2017 to $881.12 billion in FY2024, reflecting a 235.6% increase, which intensifies the government's debt servicing pressure [12].