奇迹年 | 谈股论金

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.09% at 3968.84 points, marking an 11-day winning streak, a rare occurrence in history [3][4] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.58% to 13525.02 points, while the ChiNext Index dropped 1.23% to 3203.17 points [3][4] - Total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 20.659 trillion, a decrease of 95.8 billion from the previous day [3] Institutional Insights - The 11-day winning streak of the Shanghai Composite Index is seen as a market miracle, reflecting the effectiveness of market capitalization management by institutions [4] - The focus on the Shanghai Composite Index over the Shenzhen Component Index is attributed to higher attention from management, impacting institutional strategies and public fund performance [4] Sector Performance - The commercial aerospace sector continues to dominate market interest, while AI applications remain a focal point [5] - Declining sectors include pharmaceuticals, batteries, semiconductors, commercial photovoltaics, and oil, which have recently experienced significant speculation [5] AI Market Outlook - The biggest uncertainty for 2026 is the future trajectory of the AI market, with three potential scenarios outlined: strong application landing, risk of AI bubble burst, or a gradual cooling and selection of core competitive stocks [6] - The Hang Seng Technology Index, which includes many promising Chinese internet tech companies, is expected to perform well despite a current decline of 1.12% [6] Annual Performance Summary - Major indices showed strong annual performance: ChiNext Index up 49.57%, Shenzhen Component Index up 29.97%, Shanghai Composite Index up 18.41%, Hang Seng Technology Index up 23.45%, and Hang Seng Index up 27.77% [7] - A-shares outperformed the Hang Seng Index and significantly surpassed major US indices, with the Dow Jones up 13% and Nasdaq up 21% [7]