【宏观策略】识变，应变——2026年宏观资配展望

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a cautious yet optimistic outlook for various asset classes in 2026, suggesting that while a bull market may continue, the pace of growth is likely to slow down, with a focus on high prosperity and high dividend rotation opportunities [3]. A-Share Market - The A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend in 2026, particularly in the first half, although growth may be more moderate [3]. - Structural opportunities are highlighted, with a focus on high prosperity and high dividend rotation, rather than a broad market rally [3]. Hong Kong Stock Market - The Hong Kong stock market may experience strong fluctuations in the first half of 2026, supported by the Federal Reserve's ongoing rate cuts [3]. - However, the second half may see increased volatility due to large IPO financing and changes in interest rate expectations [3]. Bond Market - The domestic bond market is anticipated to remain stable in the first half, with a slight decrease in interest rates expected in the second half due to increased economic pressure [3]. - The overall yield on government bonds is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend [3]. US Stock Market - The US stock market is projected to continue its positive trend in 2026, despite potential mid-year volatility due to uncertainties surrounding the elections [3]. - Factors such as a weak dollar, loose liquidity, and ongoing AI industry growth are expected to support the market [3]. Currency Exchange Rate - The RMB exchange rate is expected to remain stable and slightly strengthen in the first half of 2026, influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [3]. - Increased volatility may occur in the second half as the Fed halts rate cuts, potentially supporting the dollar [3]. Gold Market - Gold prices are expected to continue a trend of gradual increase, although the overall growth may be slower compared to 2025 [3]. - Changes in Federal Reserve expectations may increase volatility in the gold market, but the long-term trend remains positive [3]. Investment Strategy - The strategy emphasizes focusing on high prosperity sectors, particularly in technology and growth styles, with recommendations to invest in industries with price increases and profit revisions [3]. - A diversified approach is suggested, including global assets such as Japanese and European stocks, as well as gold [3].