数据点评 | 12月PMI回升的四大支撑（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The December PMI index shows a recovery driven by new momentum and the consumer goods sector, with a reduction in the debt-extraction effect and resilient exports supporting the index [1][4][53]. Group 1: PMI Recovery - The manufacturing PMI rose by 0.9 percentage points to 50.1%, marking a return to the growth line after nine months, despite a decline in high-frequency indicators such as blast furnace operation and freight volume [1][5][53]. - The production and new orders indices increased by 1.7 and 1.6 percentage points, respectively, reaching 51.7% and 50.8% [5][30]. Group 2: Support from New Momentum - PMI in sectors related to new momentum showed significant improvement, although the sustainability of this trend requires further observation due to a lack of corresponding high-frequency indicators [12][54]. - Traditional industries like black metal rolling and chemical fibers saw a decline in PMI, while emerging sectors such as electrical machinery and pharmaceuticals experienced increases, with high-tech and equipment manufacturing PMIs rising by 2.4 and 0.6 percentage points to 52.5% and 50.4% respectively [12][54]. Group 3: Consumer Sector Improvement - The overall consumer goods sector PMI increased by 1 percentage point to 50.4%, despite a significant drop of 5.8 percentage points in the automotive sector PMI, reflecting the impact of reduced government subsidies and demand risks [15][54]. - The textile and apparel sector PMI rose by 4.5 percentage points, correlating with improvements in travel data [15][54]. Group 4: Construction Sector Recovery - The construction PMI rose by 3.2 percentage points to 52.8%, indicating a marginal weakening of the debt-extraction effect on investment due to the alleviation of special refinancing bond issues and the implementation of incremental policies [18][54]. - Activities in housing construction and civil engineering increased by 4.8 and 1.2 percentage points, respectively, with the business activity expectation index remaining high at 57.4% [18][54]. Group 5: Export Resilience - The domestic order index rose by 1.6 percentage points to 51.1%, while the new export orders index improved by 1.4 percentage points to 49% [22][55]. - High-frequency indicators showed a year-on-year increase of 0.6 percentage points in port foreign trade freight volume, maintaining a high level [22][55]. Group 6: Economic Growth Outlook - The recovery in manufacturing PMI, driven by new momentum and consumer sectors, suggests continued economic resilience, despite traditional momentum facing downward pressure [27][55]. - The implementation of incremental fiscal policies and service consumption-related policies is expected to enhance domestic demand [27][55].