三重因素影响下的超预期——12月PMI数据点评

Core Viewpoint - The December PMI data shows a rebound in manufacturing activity, driven by year-end factors, seasonal effects, and external demand, indicating resilience in the manufacturing sector [4][5][8]. Group 1: PMI Data Overview - The manufacturing PMI for December is reported at 50.1%, up from 49.2% in the previous month [2][21]. - The production index increased to 51.7%, a rise of 1.7 percentage points from 50.0% [21]. - The new orders index rose to 50.8%, compared to 49.2% previously, while the new export orders index improved to 49.0% from 47.6% [21]. - The employment index slightly decreased to 48.2% from 48.4%, and the supplier delivery time index remained stable at 50.2% [21]. - The raw material inventory index was reported at 47.8%, up from 47.3% [21]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Year-End Factors: Anticipation of next year's investments has led to increased funding allocations, boosting the construction PMI to 52.8% from 49.6% [5][12]. The consumer goods manufacturing sector also saw a year-end rebound, with December figures at 51.4% for 2024 and 50.4% for 2025 [12]. - Quarter-End Effects: The production index typically peaks at quarter-end, with December's production index at 51.7%, reflecting a seasonal increase [6][14]. - External Demand: The new export orders index rose to 49.0%, indicating strong external demand, supported by a 7.2% increase in port container throughput [8][18]. Group 3: Additional Insights - Price Trends: The purchasing price index remains high at 53.1%, while the factory price index is low at 48.9%, indicating ongoing pricing pressures [22]. - Inventory Trends: There are signs of inventory replenishment, with the purchasing index at 51.1%, up from 49.5% [22]. - Sector Performance: The construction sector's business activity index rose significantly, while the service sector index was slightly below the neutral mark at 49.9% [22].