PMI为何重回扩张？——12月PMI数据解读

Group 1 - The national manufacturing PMI significantly rebounded to 50.1% in December, marking the first time since April that it entered the expansion zone, with a 0.9 percentage point increase from the previous month [3][4] - Key contributing factors to the PMI increase include rising new orders and production indices, while the employment index declined and the supplier delivery time index increased [3][4] - The recovery in production and demand is synchronized, with domestic demand strengthening relative to external demand, leading to an accumulation of inventory on the demand side and a recovery in downstream profits [2][4] Group 2 - The new export orders index rose significantly after the US-China trade talks in late October, with a cumulative increase of over 3.1 percentage points in November and December, indicating a recovery in external demand [4] - The manufacturing production index reached 51.7% in December, up 1.7 percentage points from the previous month, driven by improved external demand [4] - The manufacturing purchase price index fell to 53.1%, while the factory price index rose to 48.9%, indicating a potential improvement in profit distribution for downstream businesses [8] Group 3 - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 50.2%, with the construction sector showing a notable recovery, while the service sector remained slightly below the expansion threshold at 49.7% [7][10] - The construction business activity index increased by 3.2 percentage points to 52.8%, reversing a four-month decline, with new orders in construction reaching a year-high [7] - The service industry business activity expectation index rose to 56.4%, reflecting positive market expectations despite current low activity levels in retail and dining sectors [10]