在投资中要“糊涂”：不是让每种资产都对，而是让组合能走下去

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the distinct roles of different asset classes in an investment portfolio, rather than expecting each asset to perform well at all times [6][34]. Group 1: Stocks - Stocks are primarily meant for long-term growth and should not be expected to provide stability or consistent returns in the short term [8][12]. - The volatility and potential for significant drawdowns are inherent characteristics of stocks, which should be accepted as part of their role in a portfolio [10][11]. - Stocks should be viewed as the engine of a portfolio, contributing to long-term growth without guaranteeing a smooth investment experience [12] . Group 2: Bonds - Bonds are often undervalued and serve the primary purpose of stabilizing a portfolio rather than enhancing overall returns [14][15]. - Their value lies in reducing volatility and providing a buffer during market downturns, allowing investors to avoid making hasty decisions under emotional stress [16][17]. - Bonds act as a shock absorber in a portfolio, ensuring that investors can maintain their strategy even in challenging market conditions [16][17]. Group 3: Commodities - Commodities are viewed as tools for hedging specific risks rather than core assets for long-term investment [19][22]. - Their performance can be highly volatile and dependent on supply-demand dynamics, making them less suitable for consistent returns [21][22]. - The value of commodities is context-dependent, and they should be utilized strategically during specific market conditions rather than as a permanent fixture in a portfolio [23][24]. Group 4: Cash - Cash is often perceived as inefficient, but it plays a crucial role in providing flexibility and decision-making freedom in uncertain market environments [25][26]. - It allows investors to avoid forced decisions during market volatility and provides the opportunity to act when favorable conditions arise [27][30]. - The presence of cash in a portfolio is a source of confidence, enabling investors to maintain control over their actions without feeling pressured by market movements [28][31]. Conclusion - The article concludes that the confusion surrounding asset allocation often stems from unrealistic expectations of each asset class to perform well at all times [33]. - Each asset class has its specific responsibilities: stocks for long-term growth, bonds for stability, commodities for risk hedging, and cash for flexibility [34][35]. - Accepting these roles simplifies the asset allocation process and allows for a more effective investment strategy [35][36].