《经济学人》：美国经济似乎即将加速增长

Core Viewpoint - The article presents an optimistic outlook for the U.S. economy in 2026, driven by tax cuts and potential government spending increases, despite concerns about tariffs and inflation [3][10]. Economic Growth Predictions - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen predicts accelerated economic growth starting in 2026, supported by the tax cut law "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" (BBB), which is expected to provide a stimulus equivalent to 0.3% of GDP [3][4]. - The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's survey indicates a potential slowdown in economic growth to 1.8% in 2026 due to policy confusion and tariff pressures [3]. - The annualized GDP growth rate for Q3 2025 was reported at 4.3%, indicating a healthy economic environment prior to potential disruptions from government shutdowns [3]. Government Spending and Taxation - The Hutchins Center estimates that government spending restoration could provide an additional GDP stimulus of 0.6% alongside the tax refunds [4]. - A significant reduction in IRS budget could lead to increased tax evasion, potentially impacting GDP by 0.25% or more [4]. Tariff Implications - The Congressional Budget Office forecasts tariff revenues to reach $215 billion by 2026, which could indirectly affect consumer purchasing power through higher prices [6]. - The Supreme Court's potential ruling on tariffs could necessitate refunds for companies that paid illegal tariffs, impacting GDP by approximately 0.5% [6][7]. Monetary Policy and Market Outlook - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates to a range of 3.5%-3.75%, the lowest since 2022, indicating a shift towards more accommodative monetary policy [7]. - Predictions suggest that the S&P 500 index could rise by 9% in 2026, which would enhance household wealth and stimulate consumer spending [9]. Global Economic Context - Analysts predict that 2026 could witness strong international economic growth, driven by fiscal expansions in Germany and consumer stimulus reforms in China [10]. - Current Brent crude oil prices are at $61 per barrel, near a four-year low, which could further support economic growth [10]. Labor Market and Inflation Concerns - Despite a tight labor market, strong wage growth suggests resilience rather than weakness, although low hiring numbers remain a concern [10]. - The article warns that combining fiscal and monetary stimulus could reignite concerns over government debt, potentially undermining the credibility of the Federal Reserve's inflation target [10].