英国《金融时报》：预测2026年的世界

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a series of predictions for 2026, covering various global political, economic, and technological trends, highlighting uncertainties and potential developments in multiple sectors. Trade and Tariffs - Trump's tariff policies are unlikely to raise average tariff levels above current rates due to complexities and market reactions, including stock market declines and consumer price increases [4][5]. Geopolitical Developments - Ukraine is not expected to concede the Donbas region in peace negotiations, as military and political factors make such a concession too risky for President Zelensky [5]. - The U.S. Republican Party is predicted to lose control of the House in the upcoming midterm elections, allowing the Democratic Party to block Trump's agenda [5]. Technology and Investment - The artificial intelligence bubble is expected to burst by 2026, with significant losses anticipated for venture capital and private equity, particularly affecting smaller companies [5]. - Home robots are anticipated to become available, with a startup accepting pre-orders for a humanoid robot priced at $20,000, expected to be delivered by 2026 [11]. Currency and Economic Trends - The Chinese yuan is not expected to appreciate significantly, with a projected exchange rate of 7.01 against the dollar, and a one-year forward rate of 6.89 [7]. - Africa's economic growth is expected to slightly surpass Asia's, driven by structural reforms and favorable fiscal policies, despite ongoing challenges [12]. Financial Markets - Gold prices are projected to rise, potentially exceeding $5,000 per ounce, driven by central bank purchases and as a hedge against economic uncertainties [12]. - The likelihood of a significant increase in private credit defaults is high, as companies struggle with rising interest rates, leading to potential bankruptcies [10]. Political Landscape - France is not expected to hold early elections, as political focus shifts towards the 2027 presidential elections [6]. - The leadership of the UK Labour Party may face challenges following poor performance in local elections, with potential for internal strife [9].