2026年中国烘焙什么在变？于不确定时代，追寻烘焙“确定性”价值

Core Insights - The Chinese baking industry is entering a rational and profound value reconstruction period after years of rapid growth and intense competition, with consumers increasingly seeking emotional compensation and psychological fulfillment from their food choices [1][2]. Consumer Trends - The year 2026 is expected to be a period of restructured consumer motivations rather than a year of explosive growth for any single flavor or category, with brands needing to provide a sense of certainty and value to consumers [3]. Psychological Drivers of Consumer Behavior - Self-Indulgence: The trend of "single-person consumption" is evolving into a high-quality ritual of solitude, with single orders increasing from 31% in 2021 to 47% by 2025 globally, particularly in first-tier and new first-tier cities in China [4]. - Micro Control: In an uncertain environment, small, autonomous consumer choices serve as a psychological compensation mechanism, allowing consumers to regain a sense of control through customizable options [6][7]. - Emotional Investment: Consumers are increasingly focused on the emotional return on investment, seeking products that enhance their experiences and social currency, willing to pay a premium for items that resonate with their current mood and elevate their social interactions [9][10]. Market Trends - Return of Classic Flavors: Traditional flavors like Tiramisu and honey butter are experiencing a resurgence, with innovative adaptations in various products, enhancing sensory experiences [13]. - Emerging Flavors: Yuzu and black sesame are gaining traction, representing not just taste but also cultural confidence and health concepts [15]. - Texture as a Key Factor: Distinctive textures are becoming critical in driving purchase decisions, with consumers favoring products that offer a variety of mouthfeel experiences [17][19]. - All-Weather Consumption: Products need to adapt to fragmented lifestyles, with a shift towards portable, easy-to-eat options that cater to on-the-go consumption [20][23]. Strategic Considerations - The baking industry must discern which trends warrant sustained investment and which are more suitable for temporary experimentation, as consumers are becoming clearer about their needs [24]. - Future competition will hinge on brands being remembered and chosen at the right moments, rather than merely increasing output [25].