一大笔资金开始蠢蠢欲动！2026年股市基本面将迎来修复

Group 1 - The article discusses three main areas where cash is currently trapped: $7 trillion in overseas earnings from export companies, heavy debt burdens on local governments, and cash flow issues in real estate and construction companies due to regulatory constraints [5][12]. - The average collection period for accounts receivable in industrial enterprises has increased from 35 days in 2015 to 70 days now, indicating a growing cash flow issue [4][7]. - There is a potential turning point for cash flow as significant funds are beginning to move, which could alleviate the current cash flow constraints [12]. Group 2 - Recent rapid appreciation of the RMB, surpassing the 7 mark, indicates that multinational funds are accelerating their repatriation, which is crucial for easing domestic cash flow shortages [13][15]. - The process of foreign trade companies converting their earnings into RMB through commercial banks effectively injects liquidity into the market, which is more impactful than traditional monetary policy measures like reserve requirement cuts [18][21]. - As funds are expected to flow from short-term investments into the stock market, this could lead to a spring rally in the equity markets, especially as expectations for the real estate market have shifted [26][28]. Group 3 - The bond market is facing downward pressure as the central bank anticipates increased liquidity from repatriated funds, leading to tighter interbank liquidity and potential declines in bond prices [29][30]. - The long-term bond yields are expected to rise, with estimates suggesting that the 10-year government bond yield could exceed 2%, indicating a shift from a bull market to a bear market in bonds [34][32]. - As the bond market declines, funds are likely to migrate towards the stock market, creating opportunities for equity investments [35]. Group 4 - The article emphasizes that improving prices is not solely reliant on monetary easing but rather on increasing market interest rates to facilitate the return of foreign capital [36]. - The central bank is expected to intervene to stabilize bond market fluctuations and manage the pace of RMB appreciation to prevent excessive inflation [39][40]. - Domestic account periods are anticipated to improve as the country navigates through geopolitical challenges and focuses on boosting domestic demand, which is projected to become a primary concern in the near future [53][54].