火箭坠落，股价飞天

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent failures of China's new rockets, Zhuque-3 and Chang Zheng-12A, in achieving successful recovery, yet highlights a paradoxical surge in the aerospace sector, particularly in commercial space stocks, indicating a rational revaluation of value under new rules and clear expectations [5][6][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Despite the failures of rocket recovery, the aerospace sector, especially commercial space stocks, experienced significant price increases, with some stocks doubling in a matter of days [6]. - The market is not irrationally reacting; rather, it is undergoing a rational revaluation based on a new understanding of "engineering iteration certainty" [7][10]. - The introduction of commercial space and private capital has shifted the traditional failure-averse culture to a "rapid trial and error" approach, allowing for faster technological iterations [12]. Group 2: Supply Chain Implications - The focus should shift from the success or failure of rocket recovery to the thousands of components that make up a rocket, revealing a broader picture of the industry's supply chain [17]. - The reusable rocket technology leads to increased demand for high-end manufacturing components, creating a "continuous consumption demand" for the aerospace supply chain [20]. - The dual validation from both state-owned and private companies pursuing similar technological goals provides a "technical path insurance" for supply chain enterprises [21]. Group 3: IPO and Market Opportunities - The release of guidelines by the Shanghai Stock Exchange for commercial rocket companies to list on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board has created a clear path for capital market participation [24][25]. - The new listing criteria focus on successful payload delivery to orbit rather than recovery, encouraging investment in companies that demonstrate strong launch capabilities [26]. - The market is actively seeking and trading stocks related to leading commercial space companies, indicating a preemptive investment strategy in the emerging aerospace ecosystem [28]. Group 4: Data Utilization and Industry Growth - The commercial space sector has made failure data transparent and marketable, turning each failed attempt into a valuable resource for industry learning and advancement [30]. - The accumulation of failure data is seen as a unique advantage for China's commercial space industry, allowing for rapid engineering experience accumulation [31]. - The current enthusiasm in the market reflects a collective bet on the potential for significant cost reductions in space access, driven by China's robust industrial capabilities [36].