英国金融时报：美元或将创下近十年来最大年度跌幅

Core Viewpoint - Analysts predict that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts will lead to a depreciation of the US dollar by 2026 [1] Group 1: Dollar Performance and Predictions - The US dollar is facing its largest annual decline since 2017, with a 9.5% drop against a basket of major currencies this year [3][4] - The euro has gained nearly 14% against the weak dollar, reaching over 1.17 USD, the highest level since 2021 [3] - Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates two to three times by the end of 2026, each by 25 basis points, while other central banks, including the European Central Bank, may maintain or raise borrowing costs [4] Group 2: Impact of Federal Reserve Policies - The dollar's initial weakness was triggered by aggressive tariffs imposed by Trump in April, leading to a 15% drop against major currencies [4] - The Fed's return to rate cuts in September has continued to pressure the dollar, with expectations of further cuts influencing market sentiment [4][5] - The dollar's decline is seen as beneficial for US exporters but detrimental for many European companies with sales in the US [4] Group 3: Future Leadership and Market Sentiment - The potential successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell could influence the dollar's trajectory, especially if they are perceived to be more accommodating to the White House's demands for aggressive rate cuts [5] - Concerns about the erosion of the dollar's dominance due to political influences are noted, indicating a long-term worry among market participants [5] Group 4: Market Reactions and Investor Behavior - The dollar has rebounded 2.5% from its September low, partly due to the absence of recession predictions stemming from the trade war [6] - Investors are hedging against dollar exposure when purchasing US stocks, reflecting a structural reassessment by global investors, particularly from Europe [6][7]