2026消费前瞻：为“活人感”买单

Core Viewpoint - The consumption market in 2025 cannot be simply categorized as "recovery" or "weakness," as it reflects a transformation in consumer behavior, emphasizing "human feeling" as a core element of consumption [4][24]. Group 1: Eating - A Fine Calculation of Experience - The offline dining industry faces significant challenges, with a decline in foot traffic, as evidenced by a 0.66% decrease in average monthly customer visits in the first eight months of 2025, which worsened to a 4.1% decline after June [6][12]. - To attract customers, many dining brands are resorting to price reductions, with self-service hot pot and street food becoming representative categories of this strategy [7]. - A new approach to finding growth is the "dining + performance" model, which enhances the dining experience through entertainment, creating a compelling reason for customers to visit [8][12]. - Street vending has gained popularity since July 2025, with well-known brands setting up stalls, offering affordable home-style dishes priced between 10 to 30 yuan, thus broadening revenue channels [9][10][12]. Group 2: Drinking - Adding More Sweetness to Life - The new tea beverage market in 2025 is stabilizing, with a market size of 374.93 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 5.7%, down from 6.4% in 2024 [14]. - The total number of tea beverage stores exceeded 415,000, but the net number of new openings was lower than closures, resulting in a decrease of 39,000 stores [14]. - The market is witnessing a shift in consumer preferences towards healthier options, with products like fresh fruit teas gaining popularity [15][17]. - The competition in the new tea beverage sector will increasingly focus on creating perceived value for consumers, as loyalty to specific brands diminishes [17][24]. Group 3: Entertainment - Experience Over Arrival - The cultural tourism market is thriving, with domestic travel reaching 4.998 billion trips in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 18% [19]. - This surge in travel has stimulated significant consumer spending, with total expenditures reaching 4.85 trillion yuan, up 11.5% from the previous year [19]. - Innovative experiential offerings, such as city walks and interactive theme parks, are emerging to attract tourists, emphasizing engagement and participation [20][21]. Group 4: Summary - The overall consumption market in 2025 is stable, with retail sales expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan, maintaining a contribution rate of around 60% to GDP growth [23]. - Consumers are increasingly selective, rejecting products that lack emotional resonance, indicating a shift from accumulating assets to seeking meaningful experiences [24][25]. - The focus on "human feeling" reflects a collective return to valuing real experiences and immediate feedback in an uncertain economic environment [26].