以史为鉴

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "war metals," highlighting the historical price trends of metals such as chromium, manganese, tungsten, titanium, uranium, silver, and tin, and draws parallels between the current geopolitical climate and that of the 1970s and 1980s [1][3][4]. Group 1: Historical Context and Comparisons - The current era shares significant similarities with the 1970s and 1980s, characterized by geopolitical tensions and technological advancements that drive demand for certain metals [3][4]. - The period from the 1960s to the 1980s saw a stagnation in productivity in the U.S., similar to the current global trend of de-globalization and rising geopolitical tensions [3][4]. - The article emphasizes that the dual attributes of metals—strategic and productivity-related—are crucial in understanding their price volatility [7][10]. Group 2: Price Volatility and Market Dynamics - The price of strategic metals experienced extreme fluctuations during the 1970s and 1980s due to geopolitical factors, with examples such as cobalt rising from approximately $5.62 per pound in 1977 to a peak of $32.83 per pound in 1979 [9][10]. - The article notes that after 1980, despite technological advancements in sectors like computing and semiconductors, metal prices generally declined, indicating that new industrial demand does not always correlate with sustained price increases [10][11]. - The current market dynamics are influenced by financial derivatives and leverage, making the discussion of strategic metals relevant to a broader audience compared to past decades [8][10]. Group 3: Geopolitical Influences - Historical geopolitical tensions, such as the Cold War, significantly impacted the supply and demand of strategic metals, with the Soviet Union and the U.S. engaging in strategic stockpiling and market manipulation [12][13]. - The article highlights that geopolitical conflicts often lead to panic buying and supply shortages, which exacerbate price volatility in the metals market [14][15]. - The potential for a shift in geopolitical relations, akin to the thawing of U.S.-Soviet tensions in the 1980s, could significantly alter the current market landscape for these metals [19].