点击收听音频 近期，一部名为《年少有为》的电视剧悄然在大众视野中走红。值此春节将至之际， 特向各位予以推荐。若在假期闲暇之时，不妨观赏此剧，品味这部看似荒诞却又高度贴合 现实的故事。 从表面来看，此剧属于喜剧类型，剧中充斥着夸张的情节与搞笑的剧情转折。但若深 入剖析，则会发现该剧通过天火集团与腾达游戏这两家虚构企业的对比，巧妙地对现代企 业管理的本质问题——包容制度展开了探讨，更深层次也是对制度驱动生产力重塑生产关 系推动效率这个齿轮真实的映射； ---付鹏 近期，一部名为 《年少有为》 的电视剧悄然在大众视野中走红，我在昨天的直播中也简 单的向大家分享了我对这部剧的一些深层次隐含的内容看法 。 值此春节将至之际，特向各位 予以推荐 。 若在假期闲暇之时，不妨观赏此剧，品味这部看似荒诞却又高度贴合现实的故事 剧中主角裴谦原本是一名普通的职场从业者，受相关 要求创建了一家公司，进而成为一家 游戏公司的 "负责人"。其任务看似简单，即有意促使公司产生亏损，推动公司倒闭，从而获 取一笔补偿金。此设定类似于期权机制，公司亏损幅度越大，其获利就越多；即便公司实现盈 利，他也能稳获一定收益。这种设定对人性的考验，随着剧情 ...

导读 美联储向保守主义的复位与传统原则的回归， 退回到原有的边界，流动性的保守转 向，沃什如果当选，将用保守和传统重新定义"鹰派"这个词； 01 权威的危机：美联储"越位"的历史 中央银行的核心使命在于维持物价稳定以及推动充分就业。其作为金融体系的"守护者"，借助调整利率和货币供给 量对宏观经济实施调控。根据沃尔特·巴芝浩（Wa lt e r Ba g e hot）的经典学说，中央银行的"传统"职能界定清晰且范畴 较窄：在金融恐慌期间，央行需以带有惩罚性的高利率为具备偿债能力的机构提供流动性支持，而在日常状态下则保 持"不干预"原则，不对市场的常规运行进行干涉，这种情形类似于消防队仅在火灾发生时出动救援，而非每日开展巡 逻与洒水作业。 ---付鹏 2026年初，凯文·沃什（Ke vi n Wa rs h）被提名为美联储新主席这一事件，并非仅 仅是一次简单的人事变动，而是对过去十五年全球中央银行主流治理理念的根本性反 思与清算。 沃什所倡导的"缩表 + 降息"政策组合，本质上是" 流动性回归保守 "理念的具体 呈现。此处的" 保守主义的复位，传统原则的回归 "并非单纯意味着政策紧缩，而是 强调风险定价权的私有化 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the tension between idealism and realism in global politics, particularly focusing on the limitations of both extreme social Darwinism and utopian ideals in explaining human society and international relations [1][2][6]. Group 1: Theoretical Perspectives - Extreme social Darwinism leads to destructive competition, undermining social cohesion and human values, while the ideal of a utopian society overlooks the necessity of competition for innovation and progress [1][2]. - Both extremes fail to provide a comprehensive understanding of human society, highlighting the need for a balance that acknowledges competition while ensuring ethical boundaries [2][6]. Group 2: International Relations Dynamics - The notion of "equality among nations" is criticized as an unrealistic ideal, as powerful countries can dominate agendas through coercion and unilateral actions, undermining true equality [3][4]. - The disparity between wealthy and poorer nations reflects a similar inequality among individuals, complicating negotiations and often leading to superficial agreements that do not resolve fundamental conflicts [3][4]. Group 3: European Integration and Challenges - The European Union's integration efforts, while aimed at fostering cooperation and economic interdependence, face significant challenges due to internal disparities and decision-making inefficiencies [8][9]. - The EU's focus on consensus and regulatory coordination has led to reduced competitiveness compared to more centralized decision-making systems like those in the US and China [9][10]. Group 4: Realism vs. Idealism in Europe - The article highlights the decline of European competitiveness as it clings to idealistic values while failing to adapt to the realities of global power dynamics, leading to a potential loss of influence [14][17]. - The ongoing internal conflicts within the EU, exacerbated by differing economic structures and priorities, threaten the viability of its integration model [10][12]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The article suggests that without a shift from idealistic approaches to a more pragmatic understanding of power dynamics, Europe risks marginalization in the global arena [20][23]. - Historical patterns indicate that overly tight integration without addressing underlying differences may lead to fragmentation, echoing past political dissolutions [21][22].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the transformative power of a new technological revolution reshaping the global industrial landscape amidst geopolitical fluctuations and supply chain restructuring [1] - It highlights the integration of capital, technology, and consumption as barriers dissolve, leading to cross-industry innovation opportunities in China [1] - The article discusses the Northeast revitalization strategy as a significant national regional strategy, leveraging its industrial foundation, natural resources, and unique geographical advantages to find new engines of growth [1] Group 2 - The 2026 Changbai Mountain Forum will focus on "Investment Empowerment and Cultural Tourism Symbiosis," aiming to gather insights and consensus on investment trends and industrial futures in the post-pandemic global economy [1] - The forum will feature prominent experts and entrepreneurs discussing key topics such as "AI Empowering New Productive Forces" and "Capital-Driven Brand Growth" [2] - A closed-door meeting led by economist Fu Peng will delve into the wealth secrets of the AI era, exploring how AI technology can reshape the industrial landscape and drive new productive forces [2]

Group 1 - The article highlights changes in the WeChat public account's push notification rules, which may cause users to miss new content unless they mark the account as a star [1][2] - Users are encouraged to take a moment to star the account "付鹏的财经世界" to ensure they receive timely updates [3] - The article provides a step-by-step guide on how to set the account as a star for immediate notifications [4][6][9][16] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of staying connected in an algorithm-driven environment to avoid missing important information [2] - It outlines two methods for users to star the account, ensuring they do not miss any updates [10][14] - The final call to action encourages users to quickly set the star mark to stay informed about the latest market insights [17]

Core Viewpoint - The discussion emphasizes the transformation of productivity, production relations, and global order, highlighting the importance of technological advancements and their impact on economic structures [4][12]. Group 1: Productivity and Technological Advancements - The past decade has seen significant shifts in productivity, with a focus on technological revolutions that began around 2015, marking a new industrial and technological era [7][9]. - The emergence of AI and its foundational technologies, such as ChatGPT, represents a critical turning point in productivity enhancement, akin to historical technological milestones [10][11]. - The investment in technological infrastructure is crucial for future productivity gains, paralleling historical discussions on infrastructure's role in economic development [11][12]. Group 2: Production Relations and Economic Structures - The discourse highlights the misalignment of production relations globally, with countries facing challenges in balancing productivity gains with economic realities [13][14]. - The need for a human-centered approach in production relations is emphasized, advocating for increased welfare and compensation to ensure stability in economic systems [14]. - The ongoing tension between productivity advancements and existing production relations suggests that without addressing these discrepancies, economic stability may be at risk [13][14]. Group 3: Global Order and Economic Implications - The current global economic order is under scrutiny, with the potential for significant upheaval if productivity advancements do not align with production relations [12][13]. - The discussion suggests that the future of global economic stability hinges on the successful integration of technological advancements into existing economic frameworks [12][14]. - The potential for a new world order is contingent upon how countries adapt their production relations in response to technological changes [14].

Group 1 - The article discusses the benefits of multilateralism and globalization, emphasizing the multiplication effect of price and quantity, where a leading entity can set favorable prices while expanding market size through cooperation [3][4][5] - It highlights the ideal scenario where multilateralism enhances economies of scale, allowing dominant countries to maintain high marginal profits and achieve absolute gains while fostering relative prosperity for followers [5][6] - The article also addresses the challenges posed by technological spillovers and productivity diffusion, which can erode the core advantages of leading countries, leading to increased competition and potential internal conflicts [6][10] Group 2 - The concept of Monroe Doctrine-like strategies is introduced, suggesting that protectionism can be a rational response to maintain price stability by sacrificing some market quantity [9][10] - The article reflects on the shift towards a conservative path in the U.S., characterized by economic protectionism and a focus on core strengths, while still benefiting from technological advancements that drive productivity [14][15] - It concludes that the future of globalization lies in finding a dynamic balance between price and quantity, openness and protection, as well as sharing and monopolization [15]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of establishing a personal cyclical thinking framework to navigate the complexities of the financial market, especially in an era of information overload and noise [2][19]. Group 1: Misconceptions in Market Understanding - Misconception 1: Treating "high-frequency information" as "high-value signals" leads to a focus on superficial market fluctuations rather than understanding the underlying drivers such as productivity, debt, and policy cycles [2][3]. - Misconception 2: Using "single logic" to explain "complex systems" oversimplifies market dynamics, which are influenced by multiple interacting factors [4]. - Misconception 3: Considering "consensus views" as a "safety net" can be misleading, as consensus often fails at turning points in the market [5]. - Misconception 4: Mistaking "short-term gains" for "ability realization" can lead to overconfidence, as true investment skill is demonstrated through consistent performance across different market cycles [6]. Group 2: Core Principles for Navigating Cycles - Principle 1: The rebalancing of productivity and production relationships is a fundamental long-term driver of economic growth, influenced by labor structure changes, technological innovations, and capital flow adjustments [7]. - Principle 2: The interaction and resonance of various cycles, such as short-term inventory and long-term debt cycles, determine market volatility and opportunities [8]. - Principle 3: Understanding the interaction boundaries between policy and market is crucial, as policies can quickly shift market dynamics but must be analyzed for their underlying logic and long-term implications [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "war metals," highlighting the historical price trends of metals such as chromium, manganese, tungsten, titanium, uranium, silver, and tin, and draws parallels between the current geopolitical climate and that of the 1970s and 1980s [1][3][4]. Group 1: Historical Context and Comparisons - The current era shares significant similarities with the 1970s and 1980s, characterized by geopolitical tensions and technological advancements that drive demand for certain metals [3][4]. - The period from the 1960s to the 1980s saw a stagnation in productivity in the U.S., similar to the current global trend of de-globalization and rising geopolitical tensions [3][4]. - The article emphasizes that the dual attributes of metals—strategic and productivity-related—are crucial in understanding their price volatility [7][10]. Group 2: Price Volatility and Market Dynamics - The price of strategic metals experienced extreme fluctuations during the 1970s and 1980s due to geopolitical factors, with examples such as cobalt rising from approximately $5.62 per pound in 1977 to a peak of $32.83 per pound in 1979 [9][10]. - The article notes that after 1980, despite technological advancements in sectors like computing and semiconductors, metal prices generally declined, indicating that new industrial demand does not always correlate with sustained price increases [10][11]. - The current market dynamics are influenced by financial derivatives and leverage, making the discussion of strategic metals relevant to a broader audience compared to past decades [8][10]. Group 3: Geopolitical Influences - Historical geopolitical tensions, such as the Cold War, significantly impacted the supply and demand of strategic metals, with the Soviet Union and the U.S. engaging in strategic stockpiling and market manipulation [12][13]. - The article highlights that geopolitical conflicts often lead to panic buying and supply shortages, which exacerbate price volatility in the metals market [14][15]. - The potential for a shift in geopolitical relations, akin to the thawing of U.S.-Soviet tensions in the 1980s, could significantly alter the current market landscape for these metals [19].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the release of the red version of the audiobook "Witnessing the Countercurrent," emphasizing its unique insights and the importance of understanding the shifts in global order and ideology in the current "Countercurrent Era" [5][9]. Summary by Sections Collaboration with Xiaoyuzhou APP - The collaboration with Xiaoyuzhou APP aims to reach a younger audience by presenting the book's core ideas in a more accessible and conversational manner [4]. Special Features of the Audiobook - The red version of the audiobook retains and highlights the core aspects of top-level consciousness, which are crucial for understanding the evolution of institutional order and macroeconomic changes [6]. Understanding the Countercurrent Era - The article identifies the current era as a "Countercurrent Era," marked by significant events such as the 2008 financial crisis and the election of Trump in 2016, which signal a shift in global ideological frameworks [9]. Investment Framework and Philosophy - The author emphasizes the importance of a top-down thinking approach, starting from micro phenomena to macroeconomic issues, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the world's operational essence [9]. Educational Goals - The ultimate goal is to assist individuals in navigating the complex financial markets and making informed investment decisions, thereby increasing their wealth [13].