2026年会是大宗商品的全面牛市吗？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant trends and dynamics in the commodity market for 2025, highlighting the extreme differentiation in performance among various commodities and the impact of geopolitical factors and supply-demand dynamics on pricing [4][5][6]. Group 1: Commodity Performance - Gold has reached historical highs, with prices nearing $4,550 per ounce, reflecting a year-to-date increase of over 70% [4]. - Silver has also shown remarkable performance, breaking through key price levels and reaching over $79 per ounce [4]. - Other metals like platinum, palladium, and industrial metals such as copper have also achieved significant price increases due to strong market demand [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - There is a stark differentiation in commodity performance, with some experiencing speculative trading while others face supply constraints [5]. - The market is witnessing a shift from broad demand recovery to a focus on supply constraints and structural demand, driven by energy transition and AI developments [5]. - The "反内卷" (anti-involution) policy in China has led to price surges in certain commodities, but the sustainability of these price increases is uncertain [7]. Group 3: Import Dependency and Price Trends - Commodities with high import dependency, such as platinum and palladium, are more susceptible to price increases due to domestic pricing power issues [9]. - The market for PX remains tight despite low import dependency, leading to price increases driven by limited supply channels [9]. Group 4: Speculative Trading and Market Sentiment - The article notes that speculative trading has become prevalent, particularly in commodities like lithium carbonate, where market sentiment can drive prices irrespective of fundamental factors [11]. - Predictions for 2026 suggest a continuation of the upward trend for precious and base metals, with copper expected to be a standout performer [12]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Considerations - The article raises questions about the potential for a comprehensive bull market in commodities in 2026, suggesting that current trading may have already priced in many expectations [13][14]. - It emphasizes the need to monitor supply-side changes and valuation concerns as many commodities may struggle to find upward momentum in the face of oversupply [15][18]. - The potential for geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties, such as the AI bubble or conflicts, could impact commodity markets significantly [19].