张瑜：宽松过峰，股债重估

Core Viewpoint - The current phase of macro liquidity being the most accommodative may be coming to an end, with expectations of a marginal decline in government debt growth and loan growth in the short term, potentially leading to a continued decline in M2 year-on-year in the first quarter [2][3] Group 1: Understanding Liquidity - Liquidity assessment includes two dimensions: the liquidity of the real economy and the liquidity of the financial market, where the former affects future price and profit trends, and the latter influences current capital market transaction volumes [6][14] - The two main factors affecting liquidity are the growth scale of M2 and the scale of residents' deposit migration [8][16] Group 2: Changes in Liquidity Conditions - M2 year-on-year growth may be declining due to the "escape from extraordinary" policy, with expectations that the marginal increase in government debt in 2026 may be less than in 2025, and a potential decrease in loan growth could further drag down M2 [9][22][23] - The recent increase in market volatility suggests that the probability of accelerated migration of residents' deposits is low, which may lead to a decline in macro liquidity [2][25] Group 3: Differences in Current Liquidity Conditions - The current phase of liquidity contraction differs from historical patterns in three key aspects: 1. The impact on corporate profits is different, as the midstream sector is currently the most stable, with its demand less sensitive to domestic liquidity conditions [3][32] 2. The relationship between stocks and bonds has changed, with current indicators suggesting that stocks have a relative advantage in allocation compared to bonds [3][39] 3. The policy response may differ, as the current economic dynamics are more aligned with high-tech innovation and direct financing rather than traditional real estate and local financing platforms [3][41]