高盛对冲基金负责人：2025美股“非常好”，2026市场将更加“狂野”

Core Insights - The year 2025 is characterized by high returns and high volatility in the U.S. stock market, with the S&P 500 achieving an 18% total return, the Nasdaq 100 soaring 21%, and the Dow Jones rising 15% [7][12] - Despite the impressive index performances, the market experienced significant volatility, with a realized volatility of 19% and a maximum drawdown of 19% for the S&P 500, indicating a challenging environment for investors [9][12] - The market is expected to become even more "wild" in 2026, with high valuations and technological changes posing challenges to traditional investment strategies [31] Market Performance - The S&P 500 recorded an 18% total return, while the Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones saw increases of 21% and 15%, respectively, marking a strong year for U.S. equities [7] - The volatility in 2025 was notable, with the S&P 500 experiencing a maximum drawdown of 19%, nearly double the historical median of 10% [9] - The actual volatility for the year reached 19%, placing it in the 83rd percentile historically, indicating a turbulent market environment [12] Sector Analysis - Technology stocks remained dominant in 2025, but internal disparities increased, with about one-third of Nasdaq components ending the year lower [13][17] - The "Magnificent 7" tech stocks showed diminishing marginal returns, with total market cap growth slowing from $5.1 trillion in 2023 to $4 trillion in 2025 [14] - Nvidia exemplified the market's volatility, gaining $1 trillion in market cap but subsequently losing the same amount within seven weeks [15][16] Earnings and Market Drivers - The primary driver of the 2025 bull market was earnings growth, contributing 14 percentage points to the S&P 500's total return, while valuation expansion added only 3 percentage points [19] - The options market played a significant role in influencing short-term market movements, with nearly 90% of SPX options trading volume concentrated in one-month expirations [21] Asset Performance - Gold emerged as a major winner in 2025, surging 65%, while silver and other industrial metals also performed well [24] - In contrast, Bitcoin faced a disappointing year, ending down 6% and experiencing significant profit-taking, highlighting its lack of intrinsic value compared to gold [25][26] Global Market Opportunities - European equities delivered a surprising 21% return despite weak GDP growth, with bank stocks rising 80% [28] - Asian markets, particularly South Korea and Japan, showed strong performance, driven by sectors linked to AI and advanced manufacturing [29] 2026 Outlook - The market is anticipated to face higher stakes in 2026, with elevated price-to-earnings ratios and expanding sovereign debt, suggesting a more volatile environment ahead [31] - Tactical flexibility will be crucial for investors as traditional "buy and hold" strategies may struggle in the face of high valuations and rapid technological changes [31]