【招商电子】存储行业深度跟踪：长鑫IPO募投拉动产能升级，把握存储产业链自主可控机遇

Core Viewpoint - Changxin Technology, the world's fourth-largest DRAM manufacturer, is set to benefit from the upward cycle in the storage industry and continuous capacity ramp-up, with projected revenue of 55-58 billion yuan in 2025 and a gross margin exceeding 40% in Q4 2025, aiming for profitability in 2026 [1][3][23]. Group 1: Company Overview - Changxin Technology specializes in DRAM research and production, covering products such as DDR4, DDR5, LPDDR4, LPDDR5, and LPDDR5X, with a strong technological capability and a focus on data centers and mobile devices [2][10]. - The company has three 12-inch wafer fabs located in Hefei and Beijing, with plans for full production capacity by 2026 [4][26]. - Major shareholders include the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund and various industrial investment platforms, with no controlling shareholder [2][13]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 32.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 98%, with an expected full-year revenue of 55-58 billion yuan, representing a 134% year-on-year growth [3][16]. - The gross margin is projected to turn positive in 2024, reaching 35% in Q3 2025 and exceeding 40% in Q4 2025, driven by rising DRAM prices [21][23]. - The company anticipates a significant reduction in losses in 2025, with a projected net loss of 1.6 to 0.6 billion yuan, and aims to achieve profitability by 2026 or 2027 [23]. Group 3: Production Capacity and Investment - The company plans to raise 29.5 billion yuan for production line upgrades, DRAM technology advancements, and forward-looking research, which is expected to stimulate demand for domestic equipment and materials [5][28]. - The investment will be allocated to three main projects: 7.5 billion yuan for production line upgrades, 18 billion yuan for DRAM technology upgrades, and 9 billion yuan for advanced DRAM research [29]. - The three production bases are strategically positioned to optimize product structure and enhance capacity, with a focus on transitioning to high-end product lines [25][26]. Group 4: Market Position and Future Outlook - Changxin holds approximately 4% of the global DRAM market share as of Q2 2025, with expectations for significant capacity expansion and technological advancements to close the gap with leading international manufacturers [30]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for DRAM in various sectors, including data centers and mobile devices, as well as the increasing trend of domestic substitution in the semiconductor industry [19][30].