新年书单 | 技术、泡沫与权力（2026）(申万宏观·赵伟团队)

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "AI bubble" as a significant topic among global investors, particularly in the context of the 2026 outlook from various investment banks, highlighting the volatility in capital markets and concerns over the sustainability of AI capital expenditure cycles and profitability realization [1]. Group 1: Technology - The article emphasizes the complex system of innovation and technology evolution, proposing a "technology-economy-power" paradigm that integrates technological innovation with economic and social institutional evolution [2]. - It notes that historically, core countries have been the main providers of innovation, while peripheral countries can catch up through institutional innovation and learning effects [2]. Group 2: Economic Cycles and Bubbles - The article outlines that technological innovation and total factor productivity are the primary explanations for the increase in per capita GDP, which is also the main path for a country to enhance its global economic power [2]. - It references historical examples of industrial revolutions, indicating that to transition from a peripheral to a core country, a new wave of technological revolution is often necessary [2]. Group 3: Recommended Literature - The article lists 20 classic books categorized into three units: technology, economy (cycles and bubbles), and power, with a focus on the essence of technology, the economic long cycles shaped by technological innovation, and how technology influences the world system [3][4].