《求是》：改善和稳定房地产市场预期｜宏观经济

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the real estate market in China to support the overall economy and prevent systemic risks, as highlighted in the Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of 2025 [2][3]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - China's real estate market is undergoing significant adjustments, with some projects and cities experiencing oversupply, leading to a notable decline in sales and prices, which impacts the demand side of the economy and financial institutions [3][5]. - The real estate sector is crucial for the national economy, contributing to employment and involving numerous related industries such as steel, cement, and home appliances, with its value added accounting for 13% of GDP in 2024 [6]. Group 2: Historical Context and Development - Since the early 1980s, China has transitioned from welfare housing to a market-oriented housing system, significantly improving living conditions over 20 years, with urban per capita housing area reaching 38.6 square meters by 2020 [4]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" anticipates a cumulative sales area of approximately 5 billion square meters of commercial housing, with urban per capita housing area projected to reach around 41 square meters by the end of 2024 [4]. Group 3: Challenges and Structural Changes - The real estate market is shifting from a phase of housing shortage to a phase of balance, with structural supply issues, particularly in affordable housing for new citizens and young people [5][7]. - There is a growing demand for quality housing, with residents increasingly focused on the quality of living rather than mere availability [5]. Group 4: Policy Measures and Future Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting in September 2024 called for measures to stabilize the real estate market, including a combination of policies aimed at risk prevention and promoting transformation [8]. - The government is implementing various initiatives to enhance housing supply, including the construction of affordable housing and the renovation of old residential areas, with a focus on meeting the high-quality living needs of the population [8][9]. Group 5: Market Dynamics and Expectations - Despite overall stability in the real estate market, some cities are experiencing fluctuations, and real estate development investment continues to decline, indicating a need for time to adjust and stabilize market dynamics [9][10]. - The article stresses the importance of maintaining policy consistency and effectively managing supply to support the transition to a new development model in the real estate sector [10][11].