3分钟看清元旦全球要闻（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Global Macro Assets - Major overseas stock indices showed mixed performance during the New Year holiday, with the US indices declining: Nasdaq down 1.6%, Dow Jones down 1.4%, and S&P 500 down 1.1% [2][7] - Long-term bond yields in major developed countries mostly rebounded, with the 10Y US Treasury yield rising by 5.0 basis points to 4.19% [9][12] - Oil prices continued to weaken, with WTI and Brent crude down 1.8% and 2.4% respectively, while gold prices quickly retreated by 3.7% after reaching a historical high [12][13] Overseas Fundamentals & Data - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes revealed a division of opinions among officials regarding future interest rate cuts, with some supporting a pause [15] - Initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending December 27 were 199,000, lower than the expected 218,000 [17] - The US military conducted airstrikes in Venezuela, escalating geopolitical tensions, with President Trump claiming the capture of Venezuelan President Maduro [20] - Trump announced a delay in tariff increases on furniture and kitchen cabinets from January 1, 2026, to January 1, 2027 [25] Domestic Events & Data - During the New Year holiday, domestic travel intensity increased significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 20.3% in cross-regional passenger flow [30][37] - Domestic tourism, particularly "ice and snow tourism" and "winter escape tourism," saw a notable rise, while cross-border travel experienced a decline [43] - The average ticket price for economy class flights during the New Year holiday was 597 yuan, showing a slight decrease of 1.1% year-on-year [50] - The film market showed steady recovery, with daily box office revenue increasing by 42.5% compared to the same period in 2025 [53]