Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway (SH:601816) 虎嗅APP·2026-01-04 00:08Core Viewpoint - After enduring three years of pandemic challenges, the Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway is entering a rapid recovery phase in 2023 and 2024, but by 2025, revenue and profit growth show signs of stagnation, with net asset return rates around 6%, which is inconsistent with its "cash printing machine" image [5][6]. Group 1: Financial Performance Overview - The company was listed in January 2020, raising 30.7 billion yuan and incurring 20 billion yuan in debt to acquire 65% of the Anhui Jiufu company for a total of 50 billion yuan [7]. - Revenue growth from 2020 to 2022 was negative, with a peak revenue of 349 billion yuan in 2019 dropping by 44.7% to 193 billion yuan in 2022; net profit fell from 11.07 billion yuan in 2019 to a loss of 580 million yuan in 2022 [8]. - In 2023, revenue rebounded by 110.4% to 40.7 billion yuan, and net profit turned positive at 11.55 billion yuan; however, signs of peak performance emerged in 2024 with revenue and net profit growth of 3.6% and 10.6%, respectively [8][9]. Group 2: Business Segments - The main business segments include passenger transportation and network services, with passenger numbers remaining relatively stable pre- and post-pandemic, indicating a peak in passenger revenue [10][11]. - Network service revenue showed a consistent increase from 18.8 billion yuan in 2023 to 20.1 billion yuan in 2024, but growth stagnated in the first half of 2025, raising questions about future revenue potential [12]. Group 3: Acquisition Impact and Valuation - The acquisition of Anhui Jiufu has led to significant fluctuations in operational efficiency, with actual profits falling short of management's expectations, resulting in substantial losses from 2022 to 2024 [14]. - The financial reports indicate a simplified business model, with most operations outsourced, leading to minimal accounts receivable risk and a high proportion of cash and fixed assets [15][18]. - Current valuations suggest that the combined entity is overvalued, with adjustments indicating a net profit of approximately 13.3 billion yuan for 2024, leading to a net asset return rate of 8.4% and a price-to-earnings ratio of around 15.2 [19][21]. Group 4: Future Growth Potential - The company is positioned to benefit from upcoming high-speed rail projects, such as the Xiong'an-Shangqiu high-speed railway expected to open in September 2026, which could enhance revenue through increased capacity and potentially higher ticket prices [22][24]. - The growth in network revenue is primarily driven by new connections that increase passenger and freight traffic, with significant contributions expected from the completion of additional rail lines [25][26]. - The strategic location within the "Eight Vertical and Eight Horizontal" high-speed rail network suggests substantial future value enhancement opportunities, particularly as new lines are integrated [27].