AI与电力、新药研发、中国经济复苏.....一文读懂高盛行研团队2026年十大投资主题

Group 1: AI Infrastructure Investment - AI infrastructure investment is entering a new phase, with traditional leaders like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon seeing stagnant stock prices since last summer, while new entrants like Broadcom are gaining traction [2][4] - Investors are shifting focus to data centers, looking for companies that can support global computing power regardless of the chip used [4] - The power sector within AI infrastructure is also transforming, with utility stocks stagnating while gas turbine suppliers like GE Vernova continue to rise [5] Group 2: Pharmaceutical Research Shift - The focus in pharmaceutical research is shifting from weight loss drugs to cardiovascular treatments, with significant market changes observed in the GLP-1 weight loss drug sector [9][10] - Eli Lilly continues to outperform the market, while Novo Nordisk's stock has halved, leading to a 33% downward revision in earnings expectations for 2026 [9][10] Group 3: Chinese Economic Growth - Goldman Sachs economists predict that China's economic growth will exceed market consensus, driven by technological advancements and a strong export position [13] - The recovery of the Chinese economy is expected to impact global trade and technology dynamics significantly [13] Group 4: Policy Uncertainty - Policy uncertainty is expected to dominate the market in 2026, with key factors including Federal Reserve actions, Supreme Court rulings on tariffs, and the appointment of a new Fed chair [23] - Current stock valuations in the U.S. have reached their highest levels since the late 1990s, prompting a cautious approach from investors [3][24] Group 5: Emerging Investment Themes - The rise of alternative investments is noted, with private credit markets outperforming private equity and attracting retail funds [15] - The cryptocurrency market is expanding, with companies like Coinbase and Robinhood positioned favorably in this growing sector [16] Group 6: Military and Defense Sector - The defense sector is experiencing evolving militarization, with significant investments needed in Europe to catch up with military capabilities [17][18] Group 7: Robotics and Autonomous Vehicles - Advancements in humanoid robots and autonomous driving technology are expected to drive profit growth for industrial tech companies, including Tesla [19] - China is leading in the autonomous vehicle sector, with projections indicating that the Robotaxi market could reach $47 billion by 2035 [21] Group 8: Nuclear Energy and Rare Earths - Nuclear energy is experiencing a revival due to the demand for clean power to support the AI revolution, despite past accidents that stalled its development [22] - Rare earth metals are becoming critical components in technology, with China currently dominating this supply chain [22]