2026年汽车销量预测：基于现有政策，预计小幅增长

Group 1 - The core conclusion is that the sales outlook for 2026 is supported by policies, with structural differentiation in the market [1] Group 2 - The competitive landscape is influenced by the speed of market clearing, which affects pricing, profitability, and ultimately stock prices [1] - In the market segment below 200,000, there are many players with slowing growth, making market clearing relatively easy but dependent on the withdrawal of subsidies, which currently delay the process [2] - In the market segment above 200,000, the competitive landscape is complex with strong players, making market clearing difficult and potentially a long-term process [2] Group 3 - There is potential for high profit margins in differentiated products in the above 200,000 market, with examples like the AITO M9 and the Xpeng S9 [2] - The overseas market presents another high-growth opportunity for companies [2] Group 4 - Overall sales in the domestic passenger car market are expected to slightly decline or remain flat, primarily due to a lack of new fuel vehicle supply [4] - New energy vehicles are projected to grow by 5%-10%, with significant structural differentiation in growth rates [4]