谈谈过去一年的教训和经验

Core Viewpoint - The article reflects on past investment experiences, emphasizing the importance of market trends alongside fundamental analysis and valuation in making investment decisions [4][11]. Group 1: Lessons from Profitable Stocks - The success with China Hongqiao was attributed to its favorable fundamentals, low valuation, and positive market trends, which were initially overlooked, leading to insufficient position size [5][6]. - The analysis of market trends, fundamental changes, and valuation is crucial; when two out of three factors indicate a better choice, decisive action should be taken [5][6]. Group 2: Lessons from Unprofitable Stocks - Chengdu Bank's disappointing third-quarter report highlighted the risk of ignoring market signals, leading to a misguided decision to buy against market trends [7]. - The experiences with Gree Electric and thermal power stocks underscored the necessity of having strong confidence in fundamentals before investing, as lack of confidence can lead to panic selling during market corrections [8]. Group 3: Key Investment Strategies - Identifying opportunities where fundamentals, low valuation, and positive market trends align is rare; when such opportunities arise, significant investment should be made [11]. - When market trends confirm investment logic, it is essential to increase position size decisively, as demonstrated by the successful investment in Shenhuo [10][11]. - A lack of confidence in fundamentals can lead to poor investment decisions, especially during market adjustments, resulting in losses [11]. Group 4: Future Focus - The company plans to concentrate on analyzing firms with strong cash flow, low valuations, and a commitment to sharing value with minority shareholders, while continuing to explore the thermal power sector [12].