【广发宏观王丹】12月PMI反季节性回升的中观线索

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI for December 2025 increased by 0.9 points to 50.1, significantly above the seasonal trend, which typically sees a decline of 0.3 points over the past decade [1][5][6]. The main driving force behind this increase is the upward shift in the economic center of high-tech manufacturing [1][5]. Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The absolute economic performance is led by the pharmaceutical, automotive, textile, and computer communication electronics industries, supported by the upcoming "two new" policies in 2026, which include subsidies for digital and smart products, and vehicle replacement policies [1][9]. - The computer communication electronics sector has maintained a PMI above 52 for five consecutive months, driven by the "AI+" industry trend [1][9]. - Export orders have rebounded, with the textile industry’s export order index rising above 60 and the pharmaceutical industry’s export order index reaching 55 [1][9]. Group 2: Marginal Changes - Industries showing improvement in economic performance include pharmaceuticals, textiles, electrical machinery, petrochemicals, and metal products, with the pharmaceutical sector potentially benefiting from the flu season [2][12]. - The petrochemical industry has stabilized at a low level, with production indicators rising significantly by 15 points, likely due to stabilizing oil prices in late December [2][12]. - The electrical machinery sector's improvement is linked to the continuation of the 2026 "old-for-new" appliance policy and strong demand in the energy storage sector, with the sector's factory price index rising by 4.9 points in December [2][12]. Group 3: Emerging Industries - Emerging industries such as biotechnology, new energy vehicles, and next-generation information technology continue to maintain high levels of economic performance, with biotechnology seeing a 2.7-point increase in its economic index [2][15]. - Among the seven emerging industries, biotechnology has the highest economic performance, while new energy vehicles and next-generation information technology are in the 50-55 range [15]. Group 4: Construction Sector - The construction industry has returned to economic expansion after four months, with the real estate sector showing a slight increase of 0.5 points in its index [3][16]. - The construction activity index for civil engineering rose by 1.2 points, driven by the concentrated release of new policy financial tools and favorable construction conditions in southern regions [3][16]. - The construction PMI increased by 3.2 points to 52.9, marking a return to economic expansion [3][17]. Group 5: Service Sector - The service sector's business activity index rose by 0.2 points to 49.7, with online information technology services and postal services leading the performance [3][22]. - The financial services and capital market services sectors have business activity indices above 60, indicating high economic performance [3][22]. - The accommodation and catering services sector showed the lowest performance, declining in line with weak consumer mobility data [3][22].