【广发宏观团队】中美制造业为何呈现周期熨平特征

Group 1 - The manufacturing PMI in both China and the US has shown a "weak resilience" state since 2023, with China's PMI fluctuating around 49.7 and the US PMI around 48.0, indicating a lack of clear cyclical peaks or troughs [1][3] - In China, the adjustment in the real estate sector and targeted fiscal policies have created a demand environment with both upper and lower limits, leading to a stable manufacturing demand [1] - The diversification of global supply chains has supported export resilience, preventing typical destocking in manufacturing, while financial resources have shifted strategically towards manufacturing, resulting in low-cost supply conditions [1][2] Group 2 - In the US, rising supply chain costs and inflation have constrained economic growth, but a low unemployment rate and strong wage growth have created a positive cycle supporting consumer resilience [3] - High interest rates are limiting investment in interest-sensitive sectors, but fiscal expansion and industrial policies related to re-industrialization are supporting certain emerging manufacturing sectors, leading to a smoothing of the manufacturing cycle [3] - Both economies face structural bottlenecks: China's focus is on increasing household income and consumption rates, while the US aims to enhance supply sustainability and fiscal employment [3] Group 3 - The global stock market has shown a preference for structural recovery, with emerging markets leading and traditional sectors in the US performing well, while tech stocks have seen some pullback [4][5] - The first trading day of the year saw significant gains in Hong Kong and US-listed Chinese stocks, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.76% and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index by 4.38% [4][9] - A notable shift occurred in the US stock market, with industrial, public, and materials sectors moving from declines to gains, reflecting a cautious market sentiment [5] Group 4 - Commodity prices have shown mixed trends, with gold and silver experiencing volatility, while oil prices were supported by geopolitical factors [7][8] - The London gold price saw a technical rebound after a significant drop, while silver prices showed greater elasticity in recovery [7] - The copper market has also seen fluctuations, with low inventory levels contributing to resilience despite price volatility [7] Group 5 - The exchange rate trends indicate a continued appreciation of the RMB, with the US dollar showing a rebound against other currencies [8] - The bond market has seen rising yields across various countries, with the US 10-year yield increasing to 4.19% [8] - The overall liquidity in the market remains stable, with short-term rates continuing to be low, indicating a sustained easing environment [21][22]