DRAM价格，还要涨！

Core Viewpoint - The global memory market is expected to remain in a state of supply shortage through 2026, driven by high demand from cloud service providers (CSPs) investing in artificial intelligence infrastructure, leading to rising product prices [1][5][9] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The supply of DRAM and NAND flash is unable to keep pace with demand growth, with DRAM supply expected to increase by 15% to 20% while demand could rise by 20% to 25% in 2026 [1] - NAND flash supply is projected to grow by 13% to 18%, with demand increasing by 18% to 23% [1] - In the server application sector, DRAM and NAND flash consumption is anticipated to surge by 40% to 50% in 2026 due to increased investments in AI training and inference [2] Group 2: Product Transition and Pricing - The phase-out of DDR4 is intensifying supply pressures, with major suppliers reallocating wafer capacity to higher-margin products, leading to a significant reduction in DDR4 market supply [3] - DDR4 prices are expected to remain high due to a projected supply shortfall of about 10% compared to demand in 2026 [3] - The average contract price of 64GB DDR5 RDIMM memory is forecasted to rise from approximately $265 in Q3 2025 to around $480 in Q1 2026, indicating strong demand for DDR5 [4] Group 3: Supply Chain Challenges - The production of high bandwidth memory (HBM) is consuming capacity that could otherwise be allocated to DDR5, further tightening supply [4] - NAND flash production is also constrained, with new facilities expected to contribute significantly only by Q2 2026, while demand for enterprise SSDs is rapidly increasing [7] - NAND wafer prices are projected to increase by approximately 95% to 100% in Q4 2025, with supply shortages expected to persist into 2026 [7] Group 4: Manufacturer Strategies and Market Outlook - Memory module manufacturers are adopting limited shipment strategies to prioritize strategic customers, while facing rising raw material costs that pressure profit margins [8] - The market is expected to see a polarization where some manufacturers secure stable chip supplies while others struggle with shortages [8] - Analysts predict that the memory market's supply-demand imbalance will continue for several years, with pricing power remaining with memory chip manufacturers due to strong AI-driven demand and structural supply constraints [9]