投资前瞻（1.5—1.11）｜ 贵金属涨幅稳居四十余年最高水平；2026年资本市场还有哪些“预期差”值得注意

Macro and Finance - The 2026 national subsidy plan has been officially released, with a total of 625 billion yuan allocated for consumer goods replacement and upgrades. The subsidy for new cars remains at 12% or 10% of the car price, while the subsidy for energy-efficient home appliances has been reduced from 20% to 15% [1][2] - China will become the first economy to pay interest on central bank digital currency (CBDC), with the new digital yuan framework set to launch on January 1, 2026 [3] - Starting January 1, 2026, the interest rates for existing "public housing fund + commercial loan" will be lowered, with first-time home loan rates dropping to 2.1% for loans under 5 years [4][5] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have issued guidelines for promoting high-quality development of the power grid, aiming to enhance the capacity for optimizing resource allocation and supporting renewable energy generation [6] - The U.S. plans to deepen its involvement in Venezuela's oil industry, although short-term impacts on the oil market may be limited due to current oversupply conditions [7] - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes indicate agreement on interest rate cuts, but significant divisions among officials remain, with expectations for two rate cuts in 2026 [8] Capital Market - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is accelerating the development of the REITs market, aiming to expand and enrich the market while supporting private enterprises in asset revitalization [20] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange is soliciting public opinions on revising the "Stock Listing Rules," focusing on enhancing the responsibilities of company secretaries and improving corporate governance [21] - In 2025, 116 companies listed on the A-share market without any breaking below their initial public offering prices, marking a significant milestone [22] - A new technology investment fund has been established in Jiangsu with a registered capital of 10 billion yuan, aimed at venture and equity investments [24] - Warren Buffett has officially stepped down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, raising concerns about the future leadership under his successor [25] - The precious metals market experienced significant gains in 2025, with gold prices reaching around $4,320 per ounce and silver prices at $71 per ounce [26] - The Hong Kong stock market opened positively in the new year, with major indices showing strong gains driven by favorable monetary policies and improving corporate earnings [27] Business and Industry - Several automotive companies have reported their December 2025 sales figures, with BYD's sales down 18.2% year-on-year, while Geely's sales increased by 13% [32] - Baidu has initiated the independent capital process for its AI chip company Kunlun, which has submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [33] - The wholesale price of Moutai has fallen below 1,499 yuan per bottle, indicating a downward trend in pricing [34] - Xiaomi's automotive division has achieved significant delivery milestones, with over 41,000 vehicles delivered in December 2025 alone [35] - The green channel for Yushu Technology's A-share listing has been halted, although the listing process itself remains unaffected [36]