经济学家预警：特朗普干预或触发2026上半年激进降息三次！

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the expectation of the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates more aggressively than currently anticipated due to a weak labor market, inflation uncertainty, and political pressures, with predictions of rate cuts starting in mid-2026 [5][6]. Group 1: Economic Predictions - Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's, predicts that the Federal Reserve will implement three rate cuts of 25 basis points each by mid-2026, contrary to market expectations of only minor easing [6]. - The labor market is expected to remain weak, leading to a rise in unemployment rates, which will prompt the Federal Reserve to lower rates [6]. Group 2: Market Expectations - Current market pricing, as indicated by CME's FedWatch tool, suggests only two rate cuts, with the first not expected until at least April 2026 and the second likely in September [7]. - Federal Reserve officials' projections indicate only one rate cut throughout 2026, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary policy [8]. Group 3: Political Influences - The potential reshaping of the Federal Reserve's leadership by President Trump could accelerate rate cuts, as three of the seven board members were appointed by him [9]. - Trump's influence may weaken the independence of the Federal Reserve, especially with upcoming midterm elections increasing political pressure for further rate reductions [11].