【策略周报】跨年波动或有上升，不改高景气主线

Key Points - The article discusses significant policy announcements from the Chinese government aimed at stimulating consumer spending and economic growth, including a large-scale equipment update and trade-in policy for consumer goods set to be implemented in 2026, with an initial allocation of 62.5 billion yuan in special bonds to support this initiative [2] - It highlights the exemption of value-added tax for individuals selling homes held for over two years, while those selling within two years will face a 3% tax rate [2] - The article notes that China's official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 in December, marking the first expansion since April, indicating a recovery in both production and demand, with large enterprises also returning to expansion [2] Market Overview - The bond market is experiencing a weak and volatile trend, influenced by concerns over long-term debt supply due to fiscal stimulus in 2026 and stronger-than-expected December PMI data, leading to a rise in long-term bond yields [4] - The A-share market is showing mixed performance, with a slight increase in the Shanghai Composite Index as year-end trading continues [5]