后院的“油”戏（国金宏观赵宏鹤、厉梦颖）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complex relationship between the U.S. and Venezuela, particularly focusing on the potential for U.S. intervention in Venezuela's oil industry and the implications for oil prices leading up to the 2024 U.S. elections [4][5][17]. Group 1: U.S. and Venezuela Relations - Trump's longstanding animosity towards the Maduro government has led to a series of sanctions and actions aimed at undermining it, which aligns with his political strategy to consolidate support among the MAGA base [4][5]. - The U.S. has historically been a major importer of Venezuelan oil, but sanctions have drastically reduced Venezuela's oil production from a peak of 3.5 million barrels per day in the 1970s to about 1 million barrels per day in recent years [7][8]. Group 2: Venezuela's Oil Production Challenges - Venezuela possesses the largest proven oil reserves globally, with approximately 303 billion barrels, yet its actual production is severely limited due to aging infrastructure, lack of investment, and international sanctions [7][8]. - The country's oil production is heavily reliant on the availability of diluents and external technical support, primarily from Iran and China, to process its heavy crude oil [8][9]. Group 3: Potential U.S. Intervention Strategies - The article suggests that any U.S. intervention would likely focus on establishing control over exportable oil through partnerships with U.S. companies rather than direct takeover of oil fields [18]. - A potential strategy could involve a combination of sanctions relief and joint ventures with U.S. firms to increase production while ensuring compliance with U.S. regulations [18][19]. Group 4: Impact on Global Oil Prices - The article posits that if the U.S. successfully increases Venezuelan oil production, it may not lead to an immediate drop in oil prices due to OPEC+'s control over supply and the existing risk premium in the market [19][20]. - Even with a potential increase in Venezuelan production, OPEC+ has the capacity to adjust its output to stabilize global oil prices, indicating that the market dynamics are complex and interdependent [20].