光大证券研究·2026-01-04 23:04Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a steady upward trend in December, with major indices showing increased trading volume and a gradual recovery in market sentiment, indicating a shift from trading factors to fundamental factors dominating the market [4] - The total outstanding credit bonds in China reached 31.29 trillion yuan by the end of December 2025, with a net financing of 176.67 billion yuan for the month, despite a 17.19% month-on-month decline in issuance [4] - The new public fund sales regulations released by the China Securities Regulatory Commission on December 31, 2025, are expected to impact bank wealth management asset allocation behaviors, with public funds held amounting to 1.34 trillion yuan as of Q3 2025 [5] Group 2 - The Hong Kong insurance sector is anticipated to benefit from a strong "opening red" performance, driven by favorable sales in January and a positive investment return outlook due to a stable equity market [6] - The direct and indirect exports of steel, copper, and aluminum are projected to account for 24%, 17%, and 21% of domestic production in 2024, with expectations of improved export conditions in 2026 due to easing US-China trade tensions [6] - The annual long-term electricity price in Guangdong for 2026 is expected to reflect current operating costs of thermal power, with average profitability estimated at 0.02 yuan per kilowatt-hour based on average coal prices from 2025 [7] Group 3 - Tesla's Q4 2025 deliveries fell short of expectations, while NIO regained the top position among new energy vehicle manufacturers in December, with the continuation of the trade-in subsidy policy likely to boost sales in 2026 [8]