【申万宏源策略 | 一周回顾展望】开门红

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes a favorable economic outlook for the spring of 2025, supported by improved PMI data and a lack of significant downward risks, which may lead to a sustained bullish market trend [2][5]. Economic Indicators - The December 2025 PMI showed a seasonal improvement, with production, new orders, and new export orders all significantly better than seasonal averages, attributed to the later timing of the Spring Festival in 2026 and the pre-emptive nature of export orders [2][3]. - The absence of major economic downturn risks creates a continuous window for market performance, particularly as the A-share market is expected to see a positive start to the year [5]. Market Dynamics - Economic and industrial changes are slow variables, while capital supply and demand are fast variables, which will be more pronounced in the spring market. The influx of capital from insurance and foreign investments is anticipated to support the A-share market [5][8]. - The year-end surge in the CSI A500 ETF indicates a stable influx of marginal funds, which is expected to continue into the new year, enhancing market sentiment and broadening the profit-making effect across sectors [5][8]. Investment Opportunities - The spring season is identified as a critical time for potential investment opportunities, particularly in technology sectors and cyclical industries, with themes such as AI, commercial aerospace, and robotics gaining traction [9][10]. - The article suggests that the conditions for a comprehensive bull market in 2026 are gradually being established, driven by improvements in the manufacturing sector and increased foreign investment interest [8][9]. Sector Performance - The article highlights the performance of various sectors, noting that defense, machinery, and automotive sectors are showing continued profit expansion, while sectors like consumer goods and real estate are experiencing contraction [13]. - The relative strength of the ChiNext index compared to the CSI 300 indicates a shift in market dynamics, with a focus on high-performing stocks within the growth sectors [12]. ETF Trends - The article provides insights into the performance of various ETFs, noting significant changes in share volumes and price movements, which reflect broader market trends and investor sentiment [14].