美国初请失业金人数好于预期——海外周报第121期

Core Conclusion - The article highlights that the initial and continuing unemployment claims in the U.S. have decreased and are better than expected. It also notes the decline in overseas commodity prices and the continuous drop in U.S. gasoline prices. Upcoming important economic data includes December non-farm payrolls, ISM manufacturing PMI, and ISM services PMI [2]. Group 1: Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data releases for the week of January 5-9 include the U.S. December ISM manufacturing PMI on January 5, ISM services PMI on January 7, and non-farm payrolls on January 9. In the Eurozone, the December CPI preliminary data will be released on January 7, followed by November PPI and unemployment rate on January 8, and November retail sales on January 9 [3][4]. Group 2: Weekly Economic Activity Index - The U.S. economic activity index remains stable, with the WEI index at 2.23% for the week ending December 27, 2025, compared to 2.21% the previous week. In Germany, the WAI index has shown an upward trend, rising to 0.14% for the week ending December 21, 2025, from 0.1% the previous week [5][18]. Group 3: Demand - U.S. Redbook commercial retail sales year-on-year growth has rebounded to 7.6% for the week ending December 26, 2025, up from 7.2% the previous week. Additionally, the mortgage loan rate in the U.S. has slightly decreased, with the 30-year mortgage rate at 6.15% as of December 31, 2025, down from 6.18% the previous week [6][20][23]. Group 4: Employment - Initial unemployment claims in the U.S. fell to 199,000 for the week ending December 27, 2025, better than the expected 218,000. Continuing claims also decreased from 1.913 million to 1.866 million, against an expectation of 1.902 million [7][25]. Group 5: Prices - Commodity prices have declined, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.9% as of January 2. U.S. gasoline prices also continued to drop, reaching $2.69 per gallon for the week ending December 29, 2025, down 1.1% from the previous week [8][31]. Group 6: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the U.S. and Eurozone have marginally tightened. The Bloomberg financial conditions index for the U.S. was 0.795 on January 2, down from 0.807 the previous week. In the Eurozone, the index decreased to 1.619 from 1.651 [14][33]. Group 7: Fiscal - The U.S. federal funding expenditure for the calendar year 2025 is approximately $7.765 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.8%. This is an increase from $7.34 trillion in 2024, which had a growth rate of 3% [10][45].