元旦假期乘用车需求情况跟踪

Group 1: Demand Situation During New Year - Overall passenger car demand during the 2026 New Year holiday was relatively weak, with only a few brands like Geely Galaxy, Zeekr, and Tesla seeing some customer flow [1] - New energy vehicle orders saw a significant decline, with daily electric vehicle orders dropping by 30%-50% and gasoline vehicle orders down by 20%-30% [1] - The main reason for the decline was consumer reaction to the half-price vehicle purchase tax policy, with many customers from the previous year not quickly converting their orders [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Many automakers have set significant growth targets for 2026, but with current weak orders, manufacturers are likely to implement promotional policies to ensure sales [2] - There is still demand for car purchases during the New Year, and combined with promotions from manufacturers and dealers, a gradual recovery is expected [2] Group 3: Price Outlook - The first quarter is expected to see downward pricing and inventory clearance, with current discounts being reasonable [3] - The single vehicle subsidy from the purchase tax policy is around 4%-5%, and as long as it does not lead to losses for manufacturers and dealers, it should comply with regulations [3] Group 4: Impact of Raw Material Price Increases - In January, automakers are focused on inventory digestion, and end consumers have not yet felt the impact of price increases [4] - Any potential price hikes are expected to occur after March, coinciding with the new car release cycle [4] Group 5: Annual Demand Outlook - The total domestic passenger car registration volume in 2026 is expected to decline slightly by 2%-3%, making it difficult to match 2025 levels [5] - Gasoline vehicle sales are projected to drop by 1.5-1.8 million units, creating additional space for new energy vehicles, which are expected to grow by 5%-10% [5] - The market share of plug-in hybrids is anticipated to increase from 20% to 25%, while pure electric vehicles are expected to maintain around 35% market share, with plug-in hybrids having a greater impact on conservative gasoline vehicle users [5]