AI吞噬电力，小型模块化反应堆（SMR）成为关键解法，未来五年是关键窗口期

Core Viewpoint - The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) is driving an unprecedented demand for stable, baseload power, positioning small modular reactors (SMRs) as a key solution to the energy supply-demand imbalance, with private tech giants like Microsoft and Google taking the lead in investment and development [2][3][4]. Group 1: SMR as a Solution - The global electricity demand is growing at twice the rate of total energy demand due to the rapid expansion of AI data centers and the electrification of vehicles [3]. - Traditional intermittent renewable energy sources are insufficient for the 24/7 stable baseload power required by modern economies, making nuclear energy, particularly SMRs, a critical path forward [3][4]. Group 2: Advantages of SMRs - SMRs aim to transform nuclear energy from a "large engineering" project into an "industrial product" by reducing construction time to 3-5 years and lowering initial capital requirements [4][6]. - The small scale of SMRs (output power below 300 MWe) allows them to support large industrial complexes or approximately 250,000 households [7]. - Modular production enables components to be prefabricated in factories, enhancing economic efficiency and reducing costs [7]. Group 3: Technological Innovations - SMRs utilize fourth-generation reactor concepts, such as molten salt reactors and gas-cooled reactors, which can provide high-temperature process heat [8]. - Tech giants are turning to nuclear energy not out of sudden enthusiasm for low-carbon baseload power, but due to the limitations of renewable energy sources in meeting the continuous power needs of data centers [8]. Group 4: Private Sector Leadership - The driving force behind nuclear energy has shifted from government to the private sector, marking a historic change in the industry [10]. - Major tech companies like Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Oracle are actively investing in SMR projects through long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) [11][12][13][14]. Group 5: Economic Viability and Challenges - The economic logic of SMRs relies on large-scale production; building a single SMR would be prohibitively expensive, while mass production could significantly reduce costs [16]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that annual investments in SMRs could reach $25 billion by 2030, but achieving true economies of scale requires producing around 3,000 SMRs [16]. Group 6: Industrial Heat and Desalination Potential - Beyond electricity, SMRs have significant potential in industrial heating, with a projected market value of $1.5 trillion by 2050 for high-temperature industrial heat [18]. - SMRs are also being explored for seawater desalination in regions like the Middle East and North Africa, with costs for freshwater production becoming economically viable [18]. Group 7: Supply Chain and Geopolitical Risks - The development of SMRs faces challenges related to fuel supply, particularly due to geopolitical factors affecting uranium supply chains [20][21]. - Western countries are working to rebuild their supply chains, but new uranium mines take 7-10 years to come online, and current uranium prices are high [21][22].